What a jam-packed Week 1 of NFL football we just witnessed! Tons of scoring. A bunch of fantasy players hitting. And a couple of games that came down to the wire, spread and total wise. The first edition of “Trend Wisely” was also a huge success, as target plays went 15-8-1 last week. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going by digging into stats from years past and finding NFL Week 2 Betting Trends.
CAUTION! Your picks shouldn’t be based solely on historical betting trends. There are a multitude of things to consider. Trends are just one variable. However, one variable might be the tie breaker you need to make a bet.
Please reach out to me on Twitter if there’s anything you want a deeper dive on or particular info you would like to see for upcoming weeks. A lot of these that I will be writing about were once gut opinions or ideas of mine that I decided to dig in and #showmethedata on!
Please note: I have removed games that contradict over multiple trends from the “Targets” list
NFL Week 2 Betting Trends
Hammer the Home Underdogs
Since 2010, home underdogs have been one of the most reliable long-term sides to bet on. In the past 10 seasons, home underdogs are 187-113 (62%) against the spread (ATS). Overs are an incredible 198-101 (66%). Those are a lot of games over a long time, people! These home dogs are especially profitable on the moneyline in weeks 1-4 where they are 65-57 straight up (SU). Remember these will mostly be plus money bets too so trending above 50% is elite.
MIA +6 and +205, NYJ +7 and +255, PHI +1 and -106, HOU +7 and +265, LAC +8.5 and +315, LV +5.5 and +195
Capitalize on Week 1 Reactions
One of my favorite things to do is see how the public reacts to Week 1. I suspect that it will be especially profitable in 2020. As I mentioned in my DFS article last week, zero preseason meant we knew nothing entering Week 1. Now, there are going to lots of strong public plays that assume that we know everything after only one week’s worth of results. Hint: we still know next to nothing.
Teams on the Road after a Week 1 loss (since 2010):
24-61 SU and 36-56 ATS (41%)
Teams at Home after a Week 1 win:
57-15 SU and 48-24 ATS (67%)
Teams at Home after Week 1 loss:
43-44 SU and only 39-48 ATS (45%)
Double Digit Losers in Week 1 (since 2014):
25-16 ATS (61%) and Unders are 26-15 (63%) in Week 2
Double Digit Winners in Week 1:
Only 20-21 ATS in Week 2
Don’t worry if your head is spinning right now. It can get that way weeding through multiple trends. Lucky for you, I did all the leg work!
CLE -6, TEN -8.5, ATL +4.5, TB -8.5, MIA +6, NYJ +7, PHI +1, GB -6, HOU +7; be wary of loading up on KC, NE, WAS, BAL, BUF, and NO this week.
CIN/CLE u43.5, NYG/CHI u42, ATL/DAL u52.5, CAR/TB u47.5
Early Divisional Matchups are Defensive Battles
Division games are extremely important any time during the season. However, they carry an extra level of focus early in the season when every team is still alive and charging for the playoffs. As such, divisional games in Week 2 have seen the under go 31-16 (66%) since 2010. Moreover, divisional teams on the road after a Week 1 loss have seen the under go 15-7 (68%) while divisional teams at home after a Week 1 win have seen the under go 17-6 (74%).
CIN/CLE u43.5, JAC/TEN u44, CAR/TB u47.5, DET/GB u49.5
Seattle is Money in Primetime
Cam Newton and the New England Patriots come rolling into Seattle for a primetime Sunday night matchup this week. Both of these teams were extremely successful in Week 1 and there is sure to be a lot of buzz surrounding this game. Unfortunately for the Patriots, Seattle is an absolute wagon in Primetime. Since 2007 they are 29-10 (74%) SU and 27-12 (69%) ATS overall and when they are playing at home, those numbers are even more impressive at 20-4 SU (83%) and 17-7 ATS (71%).
Tracking Everybody’s Favorite Teaser Play
Last week we introduced a teaser concept that went an incredible 41-12 (73%) last season. We are teasing underdogs in games where the total is under 41.5. The theory is that these low scoring games will remain close and the extra 6 points we add to the underdog spread will cover the tease. I’m sure when you saw the rough grouping of teams listed last week (NYJ, DEN, and CIN) you probably didn’t feel great about it and decided to just track this out and confirm the results yourself. Well, all three teams covered the teaser last week and our three 2-team bets that come in at -110 odds went a perfect 3-0. All aboard people!
Target Teaser Teams:
DEN +13.5 and MIA +12
NFL Week 2 Betting Trends To Watch Closely
Movement off the Lookahead Line
Adding lookahead line analysis to your weekly regimen is such a valuable thing to do. Lookahead lines are typically posted on the Friday of the week before a game, which means they don’t account for anything that happened in the previous week’s game. These early lines are important for two reasons. First it gives us an idea of what the bookmakers are thinking before any recent outcomes are considered (remember these guys are the ones making a lion’s share of the money). And secondly, it helps us track how public perception and money is influencing the market.
Now this isn’t something that we want to go big on this week, because let’s face it both sportsbooks and the public knew nothing about these teams prior to last week’s kickoff. Here’s example of some ways to analyze these. We will eventually move this kind of stuff into the targeted trends space.
Line Movement towards the Underdogs
When the line moved more than 1.5 points towards an underdog, they were still only 10-17 SU, but an impressive 19-8 ATS last season. (So far this week: ATL +7 to +4.5, JAX +10.5 to +8.5)
Favorite Swapped Sides
When the line opened up with one team as a favorite and closed with the opposite team as a favorite, the closing underdog was 10-9 SU, and 11-7-1 ATS. (PHI -4 to +1)
Line Movement towards the Favorites
When the line moved more than 1.5 points towards a favorite, they were an extremely chalky 40-9 SU, but only 22-26-1 ATS. That is a pretty big disparity between SU & ATS records. (So far this week: BUF -3 to -6, PIT -5.5 to -7.5, KC -6.5 to -8.5)