NFL Picks Week 3 Recap
NFL Week 3 picks are here. Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) run all 16 games, starting with a Close Your Eyes Special on the Falcons in Green Bay Thursday night. The guys split on a handful of games, including Kramer on the Bengals against Sean’s Steelers and a long Monday night fight over Case Keenum and the Bears. Then they hand out their locks, their dogs, the teaser legs and the Circa Million card.
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Kramer was in the building at SoFi when Jaxson Dart went down for the regular season, so the show opens on Jameis Winston and a Carson Wentz ACL prediction Sean will never let go. Then it’s the first Close Your Eyes Special of the year. The rule is simple: a team that missed the spread by 21 or more last week and is getting points this week. Over the last six years it hits 57% for a plus-8.8% ROI. Atlanta qualifies, the line opened at 7 and is down to 4.5, and Green Bay is on a short week after an overtime game. On top of that, single-digit favorites in that exact Thursday spot are 0-15 ATS. Both guys take the Falcons plus 4.5.
Where The NFL Week 3 Picks Split
Sean says he doesn’t want the Steelers, then takes them anyway at plus 3.5 at home against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS off a loss since 2025, and AFC North games stay ugly. Kramer isn’t buying it. Instead, he’s on the Bengals minus 3.5 and figures whatever that Steelers pass rush does to Cincinnati, the Bengals defense does worse to Aaron Rodgers. Cleveland is next. Sean is a hundred percent on Carolina minus 3 because the Browns are 9-21 ATS after a win since 2020, and he fades that spot every time. Kramer takes the Browns, and he’s honest about it: he’s fading the Panthers more than he’s backing Deshaun Watson. Meanwhile in New Orleans, Sean likes the Saints minus 3 in their home opener against a Raiders team he thinks is due for a letdown. Kramer takes Las Vegas plus 3 and admits it’s a suboptimal spot.
Monday night got loud. Kramer called the Bears a pick at breakfast at Circa last week, and now he gets them plus 4.5 with Case Keenum starting. Keenum is 3-0 against Vic Fangio defenses, although the last one was in 2021. Sean is on the Eagles minus 4.5 and points to DeVonta Smith’s 10 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Kramer’s answer is that Jalen Hurts bailed out the play-caller, and the argument never really ends.
Still, they agree plenty. Seattle minus 7 in Washington is chalk they’ll eat, since Mike Macdonald is 17-2 straight up on the road. The Jets get 6.5 in Detroit against a Lions team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10, with Geno Smith at 34 touchdowns and 15 picks in dome games. Both would rather have Miami plus 11 than lay it with the Chiefs in that heat. Kramer rides the Colts plus 2.5 for a third straight week. Sean won’t lay points with Jameis, so he takes the Titans plus 3 in New York, since backups making their first start on short rest have gone 12-20-1 ATS over the last decade.
Locks, Dogs And The Circa Million Card
Sean locks the Saints minus 3, the Jaguars minus 2.5 and the Ravens minus 3 in Brazil, where the grass is reportedly a slip-and-slide. His dog is the Broncos on the moneyline at plus 120, and his tease runs Seattle and Buffalo down to 1 with Indy up to plus 8.5. Together, the guys build the Circa Million card out of Jaguars minus 2.5, Broncos plus 2.5, Ravens minus 3, Jets plus 6.5 and Saints minus 3.
Kramer locks the Jaguars minus 2.5, the Jets plus 6.5 and the Broncos plus 2.5 on Sunday Night Football. He watched this Rams team in person and wasn’t impressed. His dog is the Colts on the moneyline at plus 120, with Darius Slayton back alongside Daniel Jones, and his tease pairs Seahawks minus 1 with the Bucs plus 7. As for the Saints on the Circa card, Kramer disagrees and signs off on it anyway.
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Commanders
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Jets
Detroit Lions
Tennessee Titans
New York Giants
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos
Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago BearsPodcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:42 Welcome to the Sports Gambling Podcast
2:02 Week 2 Recap
19:11 Falcons vs. Packers Picks
28:22 Seahawks vs. Commanders Picks
35:20 Bengals vs. Steelers Picks
46:26 Jets vs. Lions Picks
52:03 Titans vs. Giants Picks
58:53 Patriots vs. Jaguars Picks
1:06:33 Chiefs vs. Dolphins Picks
1:12:20 Texans vs. Colts Picks
1:19:14 Panthers vs. Browns Picks
1:24:07 Chargers vs. Bills Picks
1:28:37 Vikings vs. Buccaneers Picks
1:33:52 Cardinals vs. 49ers Picks
1:43:37 Raiders vs. Saints Picks
1:49:18 Ravens vs. Cowboys Picks
1:54:23 Rams vs. Broncos Picks
2:01:30 Eagles vs. Bears Picks
2:14:17 Locks & Dog: Week 3 Picks
2:19:21 Circa Million Card
2:21:59 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
2:22:26 The Point Spread Song
