The Colts opened against Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, went to overtime on Sunday night last week, and have an international trip on deck after this one. That is the Indianapolis team Houston meets on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Indianapolis, IN, with the Texans favored by 2.5 and the total at 42.5. Both hosts took the home dog on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode.
Texans vs Colts Odds
Houston -2.5 on the road, total 42.5. This is an AFC South game, and the Colts carry a lookahead flag with the trip overseas coming.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Colts +2.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Colts +2.5
Sean asked whether the road team always wins this matchup. Ryan corrected him: it’s Houston that has owned it, with wins by four, two, four and one point in the four meetings he went through, and 2021 the last time he found the Texans losing. The old flowchart says take Houston. Ryan’s issue was the margins.
Sean said he could make a case for either side. The Colts’ defense has given up 7.2 yards per play, by his numbers, though against two very good offenses. He still believes in Houston’s defense against the Colts’ quarterback and didn’t see the Texans starting 0-3. Then Ryan pointed out that Houston keeps winning these games without covering 2.5, and Sean flipped to Indy with the points.
Ryan expects the public to be heavy on Houston, and this is his third straight week on the Colts. He likes Tyler Warren for a big game, thinks the Indianapolis defense takes a step forward now that it isn’t facing elite quarterbacks, and doesn’t trust the Texans’ offensive line to keep C.J. Stroud upright. Over the last 21 meetings, he found, the winning team failed to cover 12 times.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
