We’re officially past the halfway point of the season. We’ve learned a lot about these teams and what to expect from them. As we do each week, let’s try to crack The Opening Script and see who gets off to a hot start, and who doesn’t, in our NFL first-half best bets for Week 10. Once again, we have an international game kicking off our Sunday. The New England Patriots and Detroit Lions square off at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Kickoff is set for 9:30 ET on FOX. Four teams are on bye this week: the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Philadelphia Eagles, who get a much-needed break.
Patriots/Lions Over 24.5 (-110)
Let’s start things off with that international game bright and early. Last week we pointed out a trend with these international games. It held true as we cashed the over in the Bengals/Falcons first half. These teams have been getting off the plane ready to go on offense. The Steelers and Saints kicked off the day in France with 23 first-quarter points, hitting the over in their game.
Houston and Jacksonville exchanged blows early and often, racking up 31 first-half points in London. The week before, Philadelphia and Jacksonville put up 21 points. Now you get a Lions team with an extremely potent offense, and a Patriots team that can put up points when needed. Which I think they’ll have to do this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-125)
The biggest mismatch of the week takes place at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Jacksonville Jaguars have proven they are one of the top teams in the league. Tennessee, on the other hand, has proven the opposite. The ATS records in the first half for each of these teams reflect that as well. Jacksonville is one of the best teams in the first half covering the spread.
The Jaguars are 7-2 in the first half ATS, while the Tennessee Titans check in at just 1-7, tied with the Saints for the worst ATS record in the league. Jacksonville is a serious team that just loaded up at the trade deadline. Tennessee isn’t selling assets before the deadline. Jaguars roll early and often in this game.
Vikings/Packers Under 20.5 (-120)
Let’s go with another total in this NFC North matchup. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been the best in the league this year. Their ability to slow the game down, control the tempo, and limit strong offenses is why I love this under. The Packers have been running hot, and they may get theirs over the course of the game, but Minnesota will slow this down early.
Against the Bills last week, one of the best offenses in the league, there were only 16 points at halftime. With the Lions, only 13 total points were on the board at halftime. These two teams are both a far cry from what they were when they played back on September 13th. Except this game started off much slower.
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-125)
We’ll round it out on Monday Night Football. The new-look Baltimore Ravens with quarterback Jacoby Brissett will host the down-on-their-luck Los Angeles Chargers. At 4-5, the Ravens didn’t trade for a quarterback to try and get back in it. They’ll have a simple plan for Brissett to get settled in. Probably leaning heavily on Derrick Henry early.
These two teams are also on opposite ends of the first half ATS game. Baltimore has been a strong team early on, going 6-3 ATS. Ranking them third best in the league. On the other side, the Chargers, like most things this season, haven’t been good in the first half. At just 2-6 ATS, only the Saints and Titans are worse. These are two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, heading in opposite directions.
