The calendar for the NFL season flips to double digits this week. There’s officially more regular season behind us than ahead. However, we haven’t even started discussing the playoff bubble, let alone the actual playoff seeds and Super Bowl predictions. It’s Week 10, and that means we have nine weeks of data as a sample size. We have a good idea of who the contenders and pretenders are. It’s time to go through the teams to fade and the teams to follow in our NFL betting analysis for the upcoming week.
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NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers travel to Dallas for a matchup with the Cowboys. San Francisco has one of the most efficient teams in the league. Dallas has a terribly inefficient defense and an offense that only seems to show up against bums.
San Francisco ranks near the top in offensive EPA, success rate, and passing efficiency. The 49ers defense is equally impressive against the run, ranking among the league leaders in rushing yards and yards per carry allowed. However, their pass rush has struggled to generate sacks, creating opportunities for opposing quarterbacks who have time to throw.
The Dallas Cowboys’ defense is a major weakness. Dallas ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive EPA, pass coverage, and pressure rate.
The game script here is easy. The 49ers will put the Cowboys to sleep with their ground game and take their shots with quarterback Brock Purdy when they need to. Dallas will struggle to move the ball on the ground, but may manage to hang around with their passing game. That will just allow Dak Prescott to throw a terrible interception. The 49ers should open this one up late and cruise to a cover.
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville will play one of the most lopsided games on paper in the NFL. The advanced metrics love Jacksonville this year, and Tennessee is appallingly inefficient on both sides of the ball. Keep in mind, they were inefficient on the defensive side before they traded their two best players.
Jacksonville ranks top-5 in both Offensive DVOA and Defensive DVOA, while Tennessee sits near the bottom in both. The Titans are 26th on offense and 32nd on defense. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads a top-3 passing offense by EPA/play against a Titans secondary that ranks dead last in passing DVOA and allows the second-most passing yards per game.
The Titans can run the ball a little this year, but they face the NFL’s best run defense by rush EPA allowed. If Jacksonville stuffs early-down runs, quarterback Cam Ward will be forced into obvious passing downs against a defense that ranks second in interception rate.
It’s hard to take a team laying nearly double-digits on the road, but the Jaguars are the right side in this situation.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans travel to Cleveland to face the Browns this weekend. Cleveland is 3-0 overall at home this year and 3-0 against the spread. Houston just absolutely wrecked the Los Angeles Chargers, but this line is a complete overreaction.
The Browns defense has stayed in the upper half of the league in most advanced metrics despite trading Myles Garrett in the preseason. Cleveland is 12th in the league in defensive EPA per play overall and ninth in the league in pass EPA allowed. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud looked great against Los Angeles, but that performance has been the outlier this year. The Browns should limit the Texans’ passing attack, and the Texans can’t really run the ball this year. Both Woody Marks and David Montgomery are banged up. Montgomery is working his way back from injury, and Marks had a DNP in practice this week. Houston should struggle to move the ball against Cleveland.
On offense, the Browns aren’t very efficient, but they’ve been able to do enough to win more than they’ve lost. That’s all they really need to do against a Houston defense that’s been disappointing this year.
This looks like a field goal game either way, and the Browns are catching more than a field goal at home. Let’s lock up Cleveland to stay in this one and possibly win this outright.
Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +4.5
Las Vegas Raiders
The handicap here is simple. The Las Vegas Raiders are going with a rookie quarterback making his first start against one of the better defenses in the NFL. Las Vegas received competent quarterback play from Kirk Cousins. Now? Kirko Chainz is back in Minnesota, and the Raiders are handing the reins over to rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Mendoza struggled with accuracy, took sacks, and threw interceptions in the preseason. He only completed 55.6% of his passes against backups, was sacked four times, and threw a pair of interceptions in limited action. He has to play a full game against an NFL defense, and the Raiders don’t have a whole lot of help around him. Mendoza could force-feed tight end Brock Bowers, but Las Vegas doesn’t have much of a running game, and their pass defense has been leaky at times.
Seattle is starting a backup quarterback in Drew Lock, but the Seahawks can attack Las Vegas on the ground, and they have a literal demon at wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Raiders’ pass defense grades out as a bottom-tier unit in the NFL, and they’re 26th in the league in passing yards allowed. JSN should get loose a few times, and that’s all the Seahawks should need in this matchup.
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -6.5
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer discuss every game on the slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
