The Dolphins are 0-2 and have yet to play in front of their own crowd, and Sean Green says that alone creates value on Miami at +11. Kansas City comes to Miami Gardens, FL on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with a total of 46. Both hosts took the underdog on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds
Kansas City -11, total 46. The Chiefs have a lookahead flag, with the Raiders next on the schedule.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Dolphins +11
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Dolphins +11
Sean put it bluntly: you cannot lay 11 with the Chiefs in Miami. Kansas City just played two primetime games at home and won both, one after three possessions of overtime, and now it walks into heat and humidity against a team finally playing at home. His trends backed it up. Home dogs of seven or more are 23-4-2 ATS in the first nine games of a season, and Mahomes is 8-12 ATS as a road favorite of seven or more. He also mentioned a graphic that had Mahomes as the league leader in winning without covering, which is how the Colts game went.
Ryan took longer to commit and ended up in the same spot. His angle was the lookahead to the Raiders, a game he figures Mahomes is laser focused on. He also liked the pairing of a team that hasn’t played a road game against one that hasn’t played at home, a setup the guys generally like, and he noted the forecast calls for about 90 degrees. Overtime followed by that kind of heat, he joked, is a new trend somebody needs to start tracking.
Neither of them is sold on this Dolphins team. Ryan said the quarterback needs to do something this week or Miami goes in timeout, and Sean wants the offense to design runs for him. They took the 11 anyway.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
