Kickoff is Thursday, September 24 at 8:15 PM ET in Green Bay, WI, and it hands the Falcons the first Close Your Eyes Special of the year. The Packers are laying 4.5 with a total of 43, and Sean and Ryan both walked straight to the dog on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode.
Falcons vs Packers Odds
Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite. The total is 43.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Falcons +4.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Falcons +4.5
The Close Your Eyes Special is a trend the show has tracked back to 2011. A team that fell short of the spread by 21 points or more the week before, and is now an underdog or a pick’em, qualifies. Ryan said the last six years come out to 57% with an 8.8% ROI. His read on Atlanta was blunt: the quarterback play so far has been awful, and even as someone who isn’t sold on Michael Penix, he figures Penix has to be an upgrade.
Sean brought a Thursday angle on top of it. Green Bay went to overtime last week, and by his numbers a single-digit favorite playing a short-week Thursday game off overtime is 0-15 against the spread. Ryan made him say it twice. Add a Packers offensive line Ryan described as missing two of its five starters, and Sean said he struggles to make this team a favorite over a lot of opponents at all.
The matchup talk pointed the same direction. Ryan expects the Falcons to blitz Jordan Love all night and force bad throws. Sean credited Atlanta’s pass rush with 48 pressures through two games and thinks the Falcons offense can move the ball. His line on it: you can’t lay more than three with the Packers. Both of them left the door open to the Falcons money line too.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
