A 2.5-point spread asks Jacksonville to win by a field goal, and both hosts think the Jaguars can do it at home. New England visits on Sunday, September 27 at 1:00 PM ET in Jacksonville, FL, with the Jaguars favored by 2.5 and the total at 45. The full segment is on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode.
Patriots vs Jaguars Odds
Jacksonville -2.5, total 45. The Patriots carry a lookahead flag into this one.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Jaguars -2.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Jaguars -2.5
Climate did a lot of the work. Jacksonville hit a wall in the second half at elevation in Denver, and now the Patriots are the team stuck in the Florida humidity. The show brought up how often New England has struggled in that heat over the years, going back to the Brady teams’ trips to Miami. There was a trend on top of it, teams coming off a road game in Denver going 7-20 ATS, though it came with an honest shrug about how much weight it deserves.
The matchup case was about protection. New England lost a starting guard to a broken leg, and his replacement got handled by Pittsburgh’s defense. On film, the Patriots’ quarterback has been fine against the blitz and poor when a defense rushes four and plays cover six behind it. Jacksonville blitzed a lot against Denver and couldn’t get home, which is exactly why the guys want them sitting back this time.
Some bettors are floating this as the get-right game for the New England offense. Nobody on the show bought it. They want to see the receivers do something first, and the quarterback’s turnover-worthy throw rate is high enough to make a short favorite feel comfortable.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 3 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
