Ryan Kramer had this game at 3, maybe 3.5. The market has it at 5, and that point and a half is the whole reason both guys are on Pittsburgh. The Steelers visit the Patriots on Sunday, September 20 at 1:00 PM ET in Foxborough, MA, with New England favored by 5 and the total at 41.5. The full segment is on the NFL Picks Week 2 episode.
Steelers vs Patriots Odds
New England is minus 5 at home and the total is 41.5. That number is the whole argument on the show: Ryan had this game closer to 3 or 3.5, so the extra point and a half is what put both picks on Pittsburgh.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): PIT +5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): PIT +5
Ryan started from his own preseason numbers. He was higher than the market on the Steelers and lower than the market on the Patriots before the year began, and one week of football did not move him off either read. He asked what about this matchup justifies 5 instead of 3, and never found an answer he liked. He is not pretending the Pittsburgh offense looked good in the opener. He said it looked terrible, then pointed at the yards that came off the board on drops and the penalties that killed big plays, including an offensive pass interference call and a defensive pass interference call the guys thought went the wrong way.
Sean built the same pick from the other side of the ball. He said the Patriots were outgained 5.9 to 4.1 in yards per play in Week 1 and credited some of that to a good Seattle defense at home, but he also thinks this Pittsburgh defense is real. Sean’s angle was Patrick Graham, who ran cover six about 25% of the time last week, and his read is that exactly that look has been the problem for Drake Maye. Ryan widened it past the coverage call: what Graham really wants is everything kept in front of him and pressure with four, which is where the bad decisions come from. His question, asked without much suspense, was when Maye last had a good game against a good defense. Both of them also flagged the honest caveat: the Steelers defense did its best work against Cooper Rush, so there is a ceiling on what that tape proves.
From there it was scoreboard math. A 41.5 total points to a game in the 24-21 or 17-14 range, and Sean’s view was that if the Steelers get to 17 or 21 points, 5 is plenty of cushion. He expects an ugly game where neither offense does much, which is the version where the points matter most, and he mused about the Steelers money line without committing to it. Ryan raised the forecast, rain and wind in New England, and neither of them would guess which side that favors. Ryan’s closing line was the cleanest summary of the segment: 100% on the Steelers, a little concerned about their offense, and unwilling to rewrite his opinion of the Patriots off one game.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 2 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
