Sharp money came in on Chicago, which is funny, because the guys spent this whole segment convinced they were on the other end of that. Minnesota visits the Bears on Sunday, September 20 at 1:00 PM ET in Chicago, IL, with Chicago laying 4.5 and the total at 48, and both hosts said on air that they figured the smart side here would end up being the Vikings. They took the Bears anyway, and the reasoning on the NFL Picks Week 2 episode is worth hearing before you touch this one.
Vikings vs Bears Odds
Chicago is a 4.5-point home favorite and the total is 48. That is the number the show worked off of, and Ryan flagged it early as the kind of price that talks people into the underdog. He said he expects a lot of that this week.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): CHI -4.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): CHI -4.5
Ryan set up two reads and both of them pointed at Minnesota. Brian Flores blitzed on 80% of snaps in week one, so if he does the same to Caleb Williams, something has to give. And Ryan is fairly confident the Vikings can move the ball on this Bears defense, which gets you to a shootout. Then he ran into the problem with his own logic. If this game turns into a shootout, is he really taking the other side of the Bears? He decided he was not, and said plainly that he understands the sharper play is probably Minnesota at 4.5.
Sean went back to week one. He read Minnesota’s win as mostly penalty differential, and noted the Vikings gave up seven more explosive plays than they generated even with two touchdown catches from Justin Jefferson. Carson Wentz is where he really dug in. Sean watched that opener with one eye on the sportsbook, saw the end-zone interception get wiped out by a penalty, and filed it as the Wentz he knows. His comparison was a dealer hitting blackjack: you double up next hand because it is not happening twice.
Turnovers carried the rest of it. Part of the case for fading Chicago was that the defense could not keep living off takeaways, and Sean pointed out that in the Bears and Panthers game they forced three anyway and only gave one back, winning that margin by two. Home, against Wentz, he expects them to win it again by one or two. Minnesota also lost the leading rusher from its opener, which Ryan mostly shrugged at, since Aaron Jones is still on the roster.
Nobody pretended the Vikings had no case. Sean granted that Flores has his moments and pointed at Philadelphia walking into Minnesota with two dangerous receivers and carving that defense up. Ryan kept circling the argument that 4.5 is simply too big a number for Minnesota. Both of them talked through it, and both of them still laid the 4.5.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 2 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
