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Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 1

MIAMI GARDENS, FL – AUGUST 27: Miami Dolphins wide receiver River Cracraft (85) goes up high for a reception during the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Miami Dolphins, on Saturday, August 27, 2022, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome back to the weekly Wong Teaser Preview article! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers, be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article. Now.. let’s finally dive into the 2022 NFL Season!

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Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 1

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9, but this is how the post was done previously, so we will continue to use them. Over the past three years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, and +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10-point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%), and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½

Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3


Week 1 Lines

All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart, so you can reference it.

Wednesday Spread Total Record since 2018 10 Point Record
Rams +2.5 52 7-3 9-1
Browns +1.5 40.5 7-3 7-2
Jaguars +2.5 44 9-5 9-5
Vikings +1.5 48 9-2 10-1
Cowboys +2.5 50 5-2 6-1

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So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends. Taking a look at the lines that meet the Wong Teaser criteria right now, I will most likely be avoiding the Browns. Too much uncertainty surrounding the Panthers and the Browns as a whole.

I really like the home dogs in the Cowboys and Vikings. The Vikings are a teaser dream for some reason, and even more so now that Zimmer is out of there. I do like the Patriots as well. I took a look, and in the past four years, the Patriots have never been a dog to the Dolphins, and now we are getting three points. Yes, I realize the Patriots won’t be super great this year but getting 9 points in a division game with Bill Belichik is a no-brainer.

Picks

As of Wednesday morning, I have:

Rams +8.5

Cowboys +8.5

Vikings +7.5 (+150)

 


2022 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 0-0 0%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 0-0 0%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 0-0 0%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 0-0 0%

 

Week Record Win %
1 0-0 0%

 

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…


Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

 

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics, including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites)

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

 

Here are the results for 2021

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 67-17 79.76%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 51-11 82.26%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 10-5 66.67%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 24-5 82.76%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 21-3 87.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 5-1 83.33%

 

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