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Degen University 103: The Wong Teaser

Degen University

Welcome back, class! Today we will be discussing a betting trend that has taken off over the past few years that some Sportsbooks haven’t caught onto yet. The Wong Teaser. I will have a weekly Wong Teaser article every week this football season, so keep an eye out!

Let’s start simply with, What is a teaser? A teaser is a commonly accepted bet in both basketball and football where bettors will simply “buy” anywhere from 6-7 points on a specific game spread and parlay that with 1-5 other teased spreads.

For example, if you have like a +3 line on the Jaguars and a +2 line on the Patriots, you could “tease” both of those lines 6 points in your favor and get +9 for the Jaguars and +8 with the Patriots.

So instead of paying -110 for a single spread. You are paying -120 for a parlay of those two teased spreads. You can typically do this with 2-6 different spreads, each paying out different odds.

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Degen University 103: The Wong Teaser

The Wong Teaser is a teasing system developed by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong where the goal is to tease through common NFL final score differentials such as 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7. His reasoning behind this is that those are the most common scoring margins across all games. Let’s take a look at the margins across all games from 2018-2021 to see the frequency of each number recently:

Margin Frequency
1 45
2 52
3 155
4 45
5 40
6 70
7 97
8 50
9 16
10 58
11 29
12 22
13 15
14 64
15 23
16 27
17 32

 


The 6-Point Pleaser

Wong suggested that doing 6-point teasers on games with closing lines at +1.5, +2, +2.5, and +3 along with -7.5, -8, -8.5, and -9 would result in higher hit rates on teasers.

For example, we can look at the historical data over the last four years for games that tease through the number 0, which resulted in a record of 182-108 (62% hit rate), whereas games teased through 3 and 7 resulted in a record of 240-69 (77.67% hit rate).

Now, this is the statistical side of this method that is the most important; Over the long run, we have to achieve a certain threshold of implied odds, or there is absolutely no value in doing these teasers. Based on most sportsbooks that we have access to, the typical odds for teasers are -120, +150, +235, +350, and +550 for 2-6 teamers, respectively. The implied odds for each of these is about 74%, so any historical data range that provides us a hit rate of 74% or higher gives us our value!

So teasing through 3 and 7 results in +EV while teasing through 0 results in -EV.

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The 10-Point Pleaser

Another kind of teaser is the 10-point “pleaser,” which moves the line 10 points but has a minimum of 3 teams per parlay and typically pays out -130.

We have done the leg work for you here at SGPN and come up with the scoring ranges that result in +EV over the long run to include in this system. Here are the basic rules:

  • 6 point teasers
    • Tease the underdog when the line is +1.5, +2, +2.5 and +3
    • Tease the favorite when the line is -7.5, -8, -8.5 and -9
  • 10 point teasers
    • Tease the underdog when the line is +1.5, +2 and +2.5
    • Tease the favorite when the line is -10 or -10.5

NOTE: You may hear people say, “oh well, Wong’s method ACTUALLY didn’t include +3 and -9 and also didn’t include -10 and -10.5 in pleasers,” to which you can reply, “well yeah, but I am a degenerate who reads the Wong Teaser article every week, and I know that adding +3 and -9 only results in a 1% change in the long run and still results in +EV and that -10 and -10.5 have hit at a 91% rate over the past four years.”

Be on the lookout each week during football season, where I will post all of the Wong Teaser plays for that week and which ones I will be taking. Good luck, Degens!

 

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