Did you survive a week without any UFC? If you’re reading this, I guess that is a yes. Hopefully the week off didn’t mess with my momentum, as I had back-to-back profitable weeks leading up to it after a couple of duds. Without further ado, here are my UFC Vegas 56 predictions to try to keep the good times going.
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UFC Vegas 56 Predictions
All odds courtesy of PointsBet
Alexander Volkov (-150) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
The main event pits a couple of UFC heavyweight ‘gatekeepers’ in Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. After bursting onto the scene as a scary knockout monster, Rozentruik has swapped losses with wins over his last five (two wins and three losses). He likes to fight at distance, which isn’t going to work against Volkov, who is five inches taller and has two inches of reach on ‘Bigi Boy’. Look for the durable ‘Drago’ to pick away at Rozenstruik from distance all night.
Movsar Evloev (-425) vs Dan Ige
I don’t agree with this line, but +290 dogs generally don’t come through (only four times in 205 UFC fights this year), so I’m not picking Dan Ige here (but my MMA Gambling Podcast co-host is). There’s a reason Movsar Evloev is -425, and that he is 15-0 thus far. He’s good. His striking and grappling stats trump Ige’s, and Ige has dropped two straight.
Michael Trizano (-230) vs Lucas Almeida
In another featherweight fight, I’ll take former The Ultimate Fighter winner Michael Trizano against the debuting Lucas Almeida. Once again, a big favorite, and generally it’s best to go with the chalk. Plus, Almeida already had a shot at making the UFC but lost on Dana White’s Contender Series
Karine Silva (-120) vs Poliana Botelho
One fighter who didn’t whiff on their chance on DWCS was Karine Silva. She won with a guillotine choke last fall, punching her ticket to the big dance. ‘Killer’ lives up to her nickname, finishing all 14 of her pro wins (nine knockouts and five submissions), while Poliana Botelho has lost two straight and three of four. I’ll take the younger killer in this one.
Ode’ Osbourne (-180) vs Zarrukh Adashev
Next, I’ll go with a massive flyweight in Ode’ Osbourne, who has fought as heavy as featherweight in the past. He’ll have eight inches of reach over Zarrukh Adashev on Saturday, which will come in handy as he’s also the more active striker of the two. Adashev is a pedestrian 4-3 as a pro – I think ‘The Jamaican Sensation’ puts him down to .500 this weekend.
Alonzo Menifield (-165) vs Askar Mozharov
Askar Mozharov enters the UFC with a disputed win-loss record, filled mostly with cans. He also hasn’t fought MMA since November of 2020 (I think – like I said, his record is in dispute). While Alonzo Menifield can be inconsistent, he shouldn’t have any problems in this one.
Felice Herrig (-125) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
What to make out of this women’s strawweight fight? Felice Herrig hasn’t fought since August 2020 and hasn’t won a fight since December 2017. Karolina Kowalkiewicz hasn’t stepped into the cage since August 2021 and hasn’t won since April 2018. I’ll go chalk since KK has looked really abysmal in her most recent fights, but this isn’t a fun one to pick.
Joe Solecki (-170) vs Alex da Silva Coelho
Joe Solecki lost his last fight after winning his first three UFC appearances. I think he bounces back on Saturday, as I think he has the edge over da Silva in every aspect of the sport.
Damon Jackson (-500) vs Daniel Argueta
What a career resurgence ‘The Leech’ Damon Jackson is enjoying, winning two straight and three of his last four after getting a second chance in the UFC. He should keep it going on Saturday against short notice debutant Daniel Argueta.
Benoit Saint-Denis (-165) vs Niklas Stolze
Benoit Saint-Denis took a horrific beating in his UFC debut, which earned him unanimous respect despite not having his hand raised. The ‘God of War’ should use his durability and finishing ability (one knockout and seven submissions in eight pro wins) to beat the skidding Niklas Stolze.
Johnny Munoz Jr. (+112) vs Tony Gravely
I’ve got to get some plus money on this card. Johnny Munoz has the size and youth on his side, as well as the gas tank to upset Tony Gravely. Gravely has a grapple-heavy style, which should play into Munoz’s strong submission game.
Jeff Molina (-180) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
‘El Jefe’ Jeff Molina is my pick here in this flyweight fight. He’s undefeated in the UFC (2-0), is nine years younger than Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and lands almost twice as many strikes.
Rinat Fakhretdinov (-290) vs Andreas Michailidis
You don’t see too many newcomers enter the UFC as -290 favorites in their debuts, so it shows how well thought of Rinat Fakhretdinov is. He’s 18-1 as a pro and has won 17 straight fights.
Erin Blanchfield (-550) vs JJ Aldrich
Super prospect Erin Blanchfield gets a nice step up in competition this week against JJ Aldrich. As you can see by the -550 number, the grappling wiz should pass this test with flying colors.
Overall Record: 742-526
2022
Record: 136-69
Earnings: $801.43
Return on Investment: 3.9%
And make sure to check out Jeff’s new Money MMA newsletter/site for more UFC Vegas 56 content, including a free Pick ‘Em Contest where you can win fabulous prizes!
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