It’s NFL Best Bets Week 9 and the sixth week of my NFL Gambling Stats Cheat Sheet. I am coming off a porous 0-3 Week 8, bringing my Best Bet season record to 10-7 (58.8%). However, it is time to bounce back with NFL Best Bets Week 9.
These are the three games I’m highlighting for this weekend’s action: Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys. Don’t miss out on my FULL NFL Gambling Stats Week 9 Cheat Sheet Printable PDF though. Download here.
NFL Gambling Stats Week 9 and Best Bets
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Texans Opponents/Matchup History
The Houston Texans record is 1-6. I believe the Texans are the “best” 1-6 team in the league. Texans seven opponents this season have a combined record of 27-16. However, if I remove the Jaguars from the opponent record, then the record is 26-10. The Houston Texans beat the Jaguars in Week Five by a score of 30-14. In that game the Texans offense averaged 8.4 yards per play, and 9.9 yards per pass attempt. Furthermore, the Texans defense held the Jaguars to only 5.5 yards per play and allowed only 14 points.
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
The Texans offense ranks #4 in yards per play 6.2, #2 in yards per pass completion 11.9, #2 in yards per attempt 8.2, and are #5 in passing yards per game 282. Just as good as the Texans offensive ranks are, the Jaguars defense is on the contrary. Jaguars rank amongst the bottom five of the league in: yards per play allowed #31 6.1 and #31 rushing yards per attempt allowed 5.2. Finally, the Jaguars defense is allowing 31.4 points per game. This Texans team is hungry for a win. Coming off a bye week I fully expect the offense and defense to be fully motivated and get a convincing win.
Best Bet: Texans -6.5
Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts continue to be one the of the best defenses in the league. As a result, the Colts are ranked #2 in opponent yards per rush 3.4, #3 in yards per play allowed 4.9. Additionally, Colts are #5 in the league in points per game allowed at 19.4. The key matchup will be the Colts run defense versus the Ravens rushing offense.
Similarly, Baltimore Ravens defense has been playing well thus far this season. Ravens defense ranks #5 in yards per play allowed 5.1, #3 in opponent yards per completion 9.2, and #2 in points per game allowed 18.9. As a result, I am expecting a tightly contested game therefore points will be at a premium.
Best Bet: Ravens/Colts Under 47
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys Defense
Until the Cowboys defense shows improvement, I will continue to fade them. For instance, the Dallas Cowboys defense ranks #25 in opponent yards per completion 11.3, #30 in opponent yards per rush attempt 5.1. In fact, the rush defense has been so bad it is ranked #31 allowing 171 yards on the ground. Recently, in the last three games Cowboys are allowing 196 rushing yards per game. Finally, the most glaring stat is the Cowboys allowing 192 rushing yards at home.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers offense not ranking in the top 10 in offensive categories they still rank #5 in points per game 30.2. Lastly, the Steelers offense is scoring 27 points per game on the road. I fully expect the Steelers offense to have an explosive game versus the bottom feeding Cowboys defense.
Best Bet: Steelers Team Total Over 27.5