This column halted its brief slump last week, as UFC Fight Night: Eye vs Calvillo was very profitable. My picks were 7-2, almost good enough to pull the overall results out of the red and into the black. Let’s make that happen this weekend with UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Volkov!
It’s a much stronger card on paper than last weekend’s, with top heavyweight contenders Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov colliding in the main event.
Now, here’s the winning picks.
All odds courtesy of MyBookie
Curtis Blaydes (-400) vs Alexander Volkov
‘Razor’ Blaydes is a massive betting favorite in the main event, for good reason. Not only does he have the superior wrestling, he also has massive knockout power. While Volkov has the superior striking volume and accuracy, he looked unimpressive in his last fight against the inexperienced Greg Hardy. Look for Blaydes to finish off ‘Drago’, either on the feet or on the ground.
Shane Burgos (-140) vs Josh Emmett
Top featherweights Shane Burgos and Josh Emmett square off in the semi-main, and the numbers all favor Burgos. He’s only lost one professional fight, to top prospect Calvin Kattar, and has finished 10 of his 13 wins (five KOs, five submissions). He’s six years younger than Emmett, is five inches taller, and has a five inch reach advantage. The striking and grappling numbers all lean his way too, so the money goes on ‘Hurricane’.
Raquel Pennington (-170) vs Marion Reneau
Tough one to call here, but I’m going with ‘Rocky’ Pennington. She has more top level wins on her resume, and is 11 years Reneau’s junior.
Belal Muhammad (-135) vs Lyman Good
Lyman Good just recently (obviously) got over COVID-19, so who knows what shape he’ll be in coming into this fight. Plus, I think ‘Remember The Name’ Muhammad is just a better fighter, regardless of health.
Roosevelt Roberts (-240) vs Jim Miller
I’m going with the youth again in this matchup, as Roosevelt Roberts is 11 years younger than Miller. He’s also looked real good as of late, including his last win just two weeks ago. Miller is game, and super experienced, but I’m expected Roberts to be too young and athletic, not to mention big (six inches taller and two inch reach advantage) to top.
Clay Guida (+205) vs Bobby Green
Time to grab ourselves a live dog in veteran Clay Guida. Green doesn’t finish fights (last stoppage was November 2013), and Guida doesn’t lose fights that go to the decision (last loss via decision was June 2012, and that was a split decision loss). Could add up to a Guida win and plus money for us.
Brianna Van Buren (-220) vs Tecia Torres
The Tiny Tornado, Tecia Torres, has dropped four straight, which normally will get you cut. But she’s getting one more kick at the can. Unfortunately, I don’t see it going well against Brianna Van Buren, who will be able to match her physical strength and is constantly bringing the fight in the cage.
Oskar Piechota (-125) vs Marc-Andre Barriault
A couple of guys on a skid in this one, as ‘Powerbar’ Barriault and ‘Imadlo’ Piechota have both lost three-straight. So that makes this, in all probability, a loser leaves town match. I’m leaning away from my fellow Canadian and towards the Pole, since Barriault gets lit up on his feet (he absorbs more strikes than he dishes out on average).
Gillian Robertson (-125) vs Cortney Casey
But I’m making up for my treachery in the next fight by picking Canadian Gillian Robertson. Her grappling is going to be just too good for Casey to keep up with. It might be worth taking a prop bet on Robertson winning via submission (five of his seven pro wins have come this way).
Matt Frevola (-125) vs Frank Camacho
Both these guys are pretty much punching bags on their feet – both get hit more than they dish out. ‘Steamrolla’ Frevola is coming off back-to-back impressive victories, so he’s the pick here (another one worth taking via submission as Camacho just lost via tap out and Frevola has three submissions out of his eight wins).
Roxanne Modafferi (-125) vs Lauren Murphy
Women’s MMA pioneer Roxanne ‘The Happy Warrior’ Modafferi just stopped the Maycee Barber hype train dead in its tracks last fight, and I see her getting another grapple-heavy victory in this one against Lauren Murphy.
Max Rohskopf (-180) vs Austin Hubbard
(Max Rohskopf wrestling for NC State, where he was the SEC champion)
‘Rated R’ is a last minute replacement in this fight, and will be making his UFC debut, yet he’s a sizable betting favorite. That’s because Austin Hubbard really struggles with grapplers and Rohskopf is a grappling ace (as you can read about here).
Return on Investment: 0%