While the UFC continues to be the king when it comes to MMA and gambling, there is more MMA than ever to bet on now. Promotions all over the world as well as domestic ones are showing up in sportsbooks. The advantage here is that the data is usually quite a bit less sharp than when you’re making MMA predictions for the UFC. So we’ve decided to dig into some each week to get you started on your regional MMA journey. This week we keep it domestic for CFFC 156 from Rockford, Illinois for our regional MMA pick.
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MMA Regional Pick of the Week: CFFC 156
CFFC Heavyweight Fight: Matt Gawlik vs Billy Ray Valdez
Card Start Time: Friday (6/26), 7:00pm EST (UFC Fight Pass)
Nothing gets the blood pumping quite as much as a regional heavyweight fight on a Friday. We’ve got a pair of fighters throwing down in Illinois on Friday that have limited resumes. However, that doesn’t mean we don’t have tons of info on each and a line that really doesn’t make sense.
Billy Ray Valdez enters Friday’s CFFC fight as the far more experienced. That’s not only due to having 50% more fights, but he’s also faced two UFC veterans and a CFFC champion in that span of time. Although he’s got the tougher path to get there, one weakness sticks out regarding Valdez. His cardio is below average, even given his size. He’s often trailed off as the fight gets deeper and struggles to put together much volume late.
Even though Gawlik has been finishing fights early, his cardio is not something that worries me. He has youth and athleticism on his side when it comes to this fight. Additionally, just how dangerous he is in the clinch should mean that he’s able to put Valdez in trouble and wear on him at the same time.
Given that key attribute, we should see the promotional newcomer take this one with a reasonable line.
CFFC 156 Pick: Matt Gawlik ML (-155)
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