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NFL Free Agency: Divisional Odds Risers and Fallers

NFL Free Agency: Divisional Odds Risers and Fallers

The NFL Free Agent Frenzy continues and sportsbooks are taking notice. Teams are starting to take some drastic rises and falls as bookmakers weigh the roster additions throughout the NFL.

NFL divisional odds are fluid and changing by the minute as teams make moves. This could be the time to put some bets down and capitalize on over, or under, reactions based upon free agency.

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The Mafia takes control of the AFC East


Sportsbooks are making it clear that the Patriots’ time is done atop the AFC East, even if not all of them have removed New England from the position of favorite.

New England sits at -110 after the Tom Brady news broke and Buffalo is closing the gap at +175. According to bookmakers, Buffalo jumped from +350 to +175 since the start of March. New England meanwhile, has fallen from -250 favorites to -110. Look for New England to continue to fall as the Bills get stronger and New England rebuilds.

Quick note, Miami has gone from +2000 longshots to only +1000 since the start of March, do bookmakers know something we do not?

Brady makes the Bucs contenders in the NFC South

Tom Brady’s arrival as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been met with a great deal of excitement for Bucs fans everywhere. Sportsbooks agree as Tampa has gone from +800 to +200 and that is probably the best post-Brady odds you will get.

The Saints meanwhile have fallen from -400 favorites to merely -125 favorites. As the season gets closer, look for the Bucs’ odds to get worse and New Orlean’s to get better. This may be one of the more fluid NFL divisional odds.

AFC South still full of confusion

The AFC South meanwhile continues to be one of the more wide-open contests as far as gambling is concerned. Houston saw its odds of winning the division slip from a +150 favorite to being third at +225 after trading DeAndre Hopkins.

The Colts added Phillip Rivers and jumped to the presumptive favorites at +150, up from +250. As defending division champs, the Titans have held steady through it all at +200.

One thing remains constant though, no one believes in the Jaguars, +1400 after trading Nick Foles.

Bookmakers like Mariota and Tyrod?

Heading out to the AFC West, the only major moves have been the Vegas Raiders adding Marcus Mariota and the Chargers showing Phillip Rivers the door.

With a juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs team fresh of a Super Bowl win, it should be a race for also-rans right? While that does remain mostly true, somehow the Chiefs odds have dipped since the start of March. Opening the month at -450, they now sit at -300 favorites to win the division.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers showed a Hall of Famer the door and improved their odds? LA went from being +900 down to +600 leaving us all to wonder, is Phillip Rivers bad?

Across the desert in Las Vegas, the Raiders welcomed Marcus Mariota to the franchise and also say a bump in their chances. Vegas now sits at +800, down from +1200 at the start of the month.

Takeaways

Buffalo will be a preseason darling, with a talented defense and a fun new deep-threat for Josh Allen in Stefon Diggs, the Bills will cross over into “Favorite” territory soon, jump on them while you can still make money at +175. Their divisional odds will only get less favorable to gamblers.

New Orleans is still the team to beat in the NFC South, but wait until Tampa gets an undue bump from Tom Brady. Wait until Tampa moves into the favorite position, then hammer New Orleans.

Any of Tennessee, Houston, or Indianapolis could walk away as AFC South winners. It might be a good spot to lay money on all three and walk away a winner.

If books want to discredit Kansas City, let them. Avoid Las Vegas and Los Angeles, those two teams are going nowhere fast and certainly cannot jump over Kansas City to win the division.

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