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2019 MLB Season Win Totals & Division Odds: National League Central

 

2019 MLB Season Win Totals & Division Odds: National League Central

 

The National League Central is a very high variance type of division in that there’s just so many outcomes possible. Is it possible The Cubs run away with it? sure. Is it possible The Cardinals do? Yep. How about the Brewers? Oh, the team won it last year? you bet. The Pirates have the best pitching top to bottom and The Reds took half of the NL Champion Dodgers roster, which makes for a back and forth season long race.

SEE ALSO:
NL East Win Totals & Division Odds
NL West Win Totals & Division Odds

Odds To Win Division

Chicago Cubs (+200)

STL Cardinals (+200)

Milwaukee Brewers (+225)

Cincinatti Reds (+1000)

Pittsburgh Pirates (+1800)

 

Chicago Cubs: 88.5 Wins

The Cubs are a better version of The Giants in that their name value still produces, but it’s not to the point you may be expecting. Javier Baez has a tall task in repeating his MVP runner up season, while Lester, Darvish, and Cole Hamels are all getting up there in age. It’s a tall win total for a team that competes in a very strong division, but that’s always expected as The Cubs are one of the most publicly backed sides year after year. If their rotation can hold it together for another year, they should beat the bad teams just enough to stay in contention, but I’m not sold on them against the elite.

Lineup:
1) Albert Almora Jr., CF
2) Kris Bryant, 3B
3) Anthony Rizzo, 1B
4) Javier Baez, SS
5) Ben Zobrist, 2B
6) Kyle Schwarber, LF
7) Willson Contreras, C
8) Jason Heyward, RF

Rotation and Closer: 
Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana,
Closer: Pedro Strop, RHP

Prediction: Under 88.5 Wins 

 

STL Cardinals: 88.5 Wins

They may have made the actual move of the offseason, Harper and Machado be damned, in bringing in Paul Goldschmidt. I do worry about life away from the launching pad for him a bit, but he’s one of the best five active players to not win an MVP yet over the course of his career. He’s also in a walk year, so big things could be coming from him. It’s a great, deep, and powerful lineup that should pose issues for pitchers. From the rotation standpoint, it’s all about putting together potential and staying healthy for guys like Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha, but they do have some nice plans in place should they not be able to stay healthy.

Lineup:
1) Matt Carpenter, 3B
2) Dexter Fowler, RF
3) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
4) Marcell Ozuna, LF
5) Paul DeJong, SS
6) Yadier Molina, C
7) Kolten Wong, 2B
8) Harrison Bader, CF

Rotation and Closer: 
Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, RAdam Wainwright, John Gant
Closer: Andrew Miller, LHP and Jordan Hicks, RHP

Prediction: Over 88.5 Wins

 

Milwaukee Brewers: 86.5 Wins

Can Milwaukee do it again? Everyone saw the breakout for Yellich coming, but not to the point of The MVP award. The lineup top to bottom may be the best in the division, but without question, the starting pitching is the worst. They do have the best bullpen, so it’s certainly a give and take overall for them. Much like Baez,  Yellich won’t be able to duplicate his season, but he’ll still be a great every day player with 20-20 potential, but it took career years last year from many people that should come back down to earth.

Lineup:
1) Lorenzo Cain, CF
2) Christian Yelich, RF
3) Ryan Braun, LF
4) Travis Shaw, 3B
5) Jesus Aguilar, 1B
6) Yasmani Grandal, C
7) Mike Moustakas, 2B
8) Orlando Arcia, SS

Rotation and Closer: 
Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jimmy Nelson, Brandon Woodruff
Closer: Corey Knebel, RHP

Prediction: Under 86.5 Wins


Pittsburgh Pirates: 77.5 Wins

The pitching factory in Pittsburgh continues to turn out great young arms, and as I’ve said the Chris Archer deal fascinates me for all parties involved. Taillon needs to take the next step, which he did once Archer came to town. Trevor Williams is another underrated arm while Musgrove can pitch like an ace seemingly randomly. This is basically the opposite of The Brewers, who rely on offense only, this team will rely on pitching to get them through. As The Mets showed last year, that can be a very hard task to get wins that way.

Lineup:
1) Adam Frazier, 2B
2) Starling Marte, CF
3) Corey Dickerson, LF
4) Josh Bell, 1B
5) Francisco Cervelli, C
6) Colin Moran, 3B
7) Lonnie Chisenhall, RF
8) Erik Gonzalez, SS

Rotation and Closer: 
Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, Jordan Lyles, RHP
Closer: Felipe Vazquez, LHP

Prediction: Over 77.5 Wins


Cincinatti Reds: 79.5 Wins

The Reds are going to get better little by little as the farm system comes up, but I just don’t see them being “almost .500” better. Sonny Gray is a guy you’d like to take a buy low flier on hoping New York was just too much for him, but I wouldn’t want to expect things out of him the way Cincinatti is. The rest of the rotation is truthfully not bad, with 2-5 of average to above average guys, an innings eater in Tanner Roark, and the upside of Wood, Castillo, and DeSclafani.

Lineup:
1) Jesse Winker, LF
2) Joey Votto, 1B
3) Yasiel Puig, RF
4) Eugenio Suarez, 3B
5) Scooter Gennett, 2B
6) Nick Senzel, CF
7) Jose Peraza, SS
8) Tucker Barnhart, C

Rotation and Closer:  
Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafani
Closer: Raisel Iglesias, RHP

Prediction: Under 79.5 Wins

SEE ALSO:
NL East Win Totals & Division Odds
NL West Win Totals & Division Odds

A jack of all trades, Christian got his start in the gambling industry using a model to predict players performance in daily fantasy sports. Eventually, he used that same model to cross over into NFL handicapping, specifically the prop market and honed his craft enough to cross over from player projections into every aspect of sports Handicapping. He then made the full time move to Las Vegas to become a professional sports handicapper, utilizing his knowledge of all sports including NFL, NCAA, NBA, UFC, and MLB. He's currently the resident #DFS expert on The Sports Gambling Podcast as well as managing editor.

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