Happy Thursday Night Football friends and fellow degenerates. The bookies are on the ropes after a very chalky Week 8 with the usual takeaways. Now lets not give them time to recover and pound them for some more cold hard cash in the TNF Prop Market.
We head to the swamps of Jersey for this battle between two teams who have both surprised both with their win-loss record and their strong 10 combined wins ATS. Is it time to sell high on the over performing Bills? Will the Jets continue to JET and find ways to lose games. Will folks who are colorblind even be able to watch the game? What ever question you might have hopefully I can provide answers in the form over some lead pipe lock prop action.
Lets dive into the matchup and find some angles in the prop market to get you paid on Thursday Night Football. For more in depth NFL analysis check out(or listen below) the Week Nine NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 13 games on the slate.
Season: 28-21-1 (+7.1u)
MNF:19-11 (+10.7u)
TNF:9-10-1 (-3.6u)
Thursday Night Football Game Info
Time: Thursday November 2nd @ 5:25 PM Pacific
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Weather: 62f and partly cloudy w/ light winds
TV: NFL Network
Spread: Bills -3
MoneyLine: -165/+145
Total: 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Robbie Anderson under 54.5 receiving yards (-110)
Lets do some basic math. Robbie Anderson has averaged 6.5 targets a game. The Bills give up 6.6 yards per pass attempt. That brings us to a measly ~43 yards. Take the under and run.
2.Total FG Over 3.5 (+105) & 3. 1st score not a TD (+120)
These bets were penciled in days ago as the Bills convert a FG ~1 out of 4.6 drives on offense, while they hold their opponent to a FG ~1 out of 5.8 drives on defense. These two teams average ~22 possessions which again using basic math suggest that we should expect ~4.2 FGs(This is completely ignoring the divisional familiarity). Play the 1st score to not be a TD and the over my friends and route for the kickers.
4. LeSean McCoy Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jets are not a strong pass defense, one of the biggest weaknesses is defending the running back in the passing game allowing 6.7 catches for 52.9 yards. In walks one of the most dynamic pass catchers at the position who is targeted ~6.5 times a game. I love the spot here for McCoy for his rushing total but I think playing his over for receiving yards is the stronger play.
5. Jets HT / Bill FT (+500) & Tie / Bills FT (+1300) .5u each
The Jets have held a lead or been tied at the half in each of their last 3 games. In all 3 of those games they have found ways to fuck it up down the stretch(AKA J-E-Ting). Mean while the Bills have done just the opposite found ways to win down the stretch(in-spite of trailing or tied at the half in all their road games). With the price where it is, lets play some 2 way action and hope for a close first half where the Bills pull away in the 4th Q.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
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