Happy Monday y’all, and with four of the five biggest favorites failing to cover the spread and the Broncos and Falcons losing out right Im guessing you are looking to get it back on Monday Night Football. Its not the sexiest matchup as the luckless Colts look to keep themselves in the AFC South mix as they head to Tennessee to take on a very confusing Titans team that will hopefully have Mariota back. Lets dive into the matchup and find some market inefficiencies to put some cash in your pocket.
For more in depth NFL analysis check out the Week Six NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 14 games on the slate.
Season: 13-11-1 (+.15u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday October 16th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Weather: 55f Clear w/ light winds
TV: ESPN(Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden)
Spread: Titans -7(-120)
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. TY Hilton Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110) & 2. Over 4.5 receptions (-135)
This is now Jacoby Brisset’s 5th start at QB filling in for Andrew Luck. If you look at the last three starts Hilton has had 153, 30 and 177 yards w/ 24 total targets with the dud coming on the road in Seattle against the Legion of Boom(#6 Pass Def DVOA). The other two matchups were against the Browns(#31 Pass Def DVOA) and Niners(#26 Pass Def DVOA). In walk the Titans and their #25 Pass Def DVOA who I don’t expect will do any better now that Brissett has a handle on this offense. Take the overs and run.
3. Marcus Mariota Over 219.5 passing yards (-110)
Yes, I know playing any Mariota props are risky due to the state of his hamstring. I am banking on the fact that they will only be playing him if he is 100% healthy as another set back could cripple this teams playoff hopes. That being said the Colts are giving up 308 yards/game to opposing QBs. Don’t over think this, if Mariota plays he will easily get over this very low total.
4. Under 4.5 Sacks (+110)
Neither the Colts, nor the Titans boast what you would call a dominate pass rush, or even much of a pass rush at all. Combining to sack the quarterback only 19 times in 5 games which comes to an average of 3.8 per game. Add in the fact that both these teams will be looking to get their running game going to give their QB the best opportunity to win the game and you have a great opportunity to play this total with a little bonus juice on the under.
5. Frank Gore under 43.5 rushing yards (-110)
If you hate Frank Gore you just a hater. After tearing both his knees up in college causing him to lose the starting job to Clinton Portis and then Willis McGahee, he persevered and is the last man standing in the League. Unfortunately it appears the Colts have finally found their replacement in Marlon Mack, and unfortunately Robert Turbin seems to be the goal line back. I say unfortunately because he truly is one of the best running backs we’ve all ever watched.
That being said it may be time to take this old thoroughbred out to pastor. I love trying to get ahead of usage shifts and I may be a bit late to this party but Gore’s usage has come way down(Seeing only 14 carries for 48 yards in a game where they held the lead most of the game). Mack takes the lead as the Gore era comes to an end.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!