It’s time to set those NFL Confidence Pool picks for Week 12! Things will kick off Thursday night as the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans square off in a game with big AFC playoff seeding implications. Four teams have the week off, and there are a lot more games this week with bigger spreads than we’ve had recently. In weeks where chalk prevails, it’s even more important to hit the right underdogs. Let’s jump in and set this week’s confidence pool picks.
It was another great week for the article last week. We hit the top five picks correctly before the Chiefs let us down. Then the Falcons blew the game late (they’ve never done that before, have they?). Overall, 10 of the top 12 were all picked right, and 11 of the 14 games total we picked correctly. The Chargers over the Jaguars was the one we missed, and I said I was reluctantly taking them in that one, should have stuck to my gut! This week, we have four teams on bye. The Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, and Washington Commanders are all resting up and getting ready to return for a full Thanksgiving week of games next week.
Week 12 NFL Confidence Pool Picks
High Confidence Picks
1.Seahawks Over Titans
2.Ravens Over Jets
3.Lions Over Giants
4.Patriots Over Bengals
There’s no team I like more this week than the Seattle Seahawks. Sam Darnold got embarrassed last week. He’s going to bounce back in a big way. The Seattle defense is elite and will eat Cam Ward’s lunch and his lunch money. The Seahawks may win this game by 40. If you are alive in survivor and have them available, this is the play.
The Baltimore Ravens had to come back against the Browns, but that’s typical for an AFC North matchup. The New York Jets are a very bad, no-good football team. The switch to Tyrod Taylor might help the offense run smoother (low bar), but it won’t matter. This is another game where the huge favorite rolls.
The other favorite of more than 10 points is the Detroit Lions. They are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Eagles in Week 11. Jared Goff gets to play at home in the temperature-controlled dome, just the way he likes it. Lions’ revenge angle is always a fun one. The Giants couldn’t even take advantage of the fired coach bump last week.
The New England Patriots are for real in 2025. They get to play a beat-up Joe Flacco, who will be missing Ja’Marr Chase after his suspension for allegedly spitting at Jalen Ramsey was upheld. Drake Maye will have a field day against this atrocious defense.
Confident Picks
5.Bills Over Texans
6.Eagles Over Cowboys
7.Jaguars Over Cardinals
8.Packers Over Vikings
9.49ers Over Panthers
If your pool includes the Thursday Night Football game, I feel confident about the Buffalo Bills in this one. They take on Davis Mills as CJ Stroud is still missing due to concussion symptoms. Expect a lower-scoring game, but Josh Allen is great when he plays top defenses.
The Philadelphia Eagles head to Dallas for what will probably be a tough divisional game. Dallas kept the game close in Philadelphia in Week 1. However, the Eagles are still the best team in football as they once again proved last week. Dallas will give them a game, but Philadelphia knows how to win games.
The Jacksonville Jaguars absolutely demolished the Chargers last week. That opens up a possible letdown this week. I’ve been on this Jaguars team since the preseason, and last week just showed what they were capable of. Marvin Harrison may or may not play, but it won’t make a difference. The Jaguars are just the better team and will get the job done.
It’s a big game in the NFC North as the Minnesota Vikings head to Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Packers struggled against the Giants last week after losing to the Panthers a few weeks ago. If they want to be considered a Super Bowl contender like they were at the start of the season. “Nine” aka JJ McCarthy has shown some comeback ability, mostly only against the Bears, but outside of that, he has been underwhelming. The Packers aren’t losing back-to-back games at home to teams with losing records.
Over to the Monday Night game for the final “confident” pick. The Carolina Panthers looked good last week, coming back against the Falcons, and Bryce Young had a great game. But back-to-back road games, this one in San Francisco on prime time, it’s all 49ers for me. Brock Purdy looked spectacular in his return last week, and this is a well-coached team.
Toss-Ups
10.Bears Over Steelers
11.Chiefs Over Colts
12.Rams Over Buccaneers
13.Browns Over Raiders
14.Saints Over Falcons
Bears-Steelers is such a great game to start the “toss-ups” portion of these picks. Two legendary teams, both in interesting places right now. It’s a huge game for both teams with playoff aspirations. The Bears have impressed lately, and Caleb Williams appears to have ice in his veins. I’ll take the home team.
It’s Week 12, and the Kansas City Chiefs would not be in the playoffs if they started today. Yet, Daniel Jones has me scared to pick them this week. If you’d have told me this a year ago, I wouldn’t have believed it was possible. Ultimately, I believe the Chiefs are still a great team, and we did see some cracks in Jones’ armor two weeks ago. This is going to be a tough-fought battle between two really good teams, but you have to take Patrick Mahomes here.
The Los Angeles Rams being 6.5-point favorites is a ninth interesting. This should be much more of a toss-up game than that spread would lead you to believe. Baker Mayfield is going to ball out on Sunday Night Football and keep it close. Ultimately, the Rams are still the better team, and they’ll extend the Buccaneers’ losing streak to three games.
Myles Garrett may set the single-game sack record on Sunday in this game against the Raiders. We all knew the Raiders weren’t good, but they showed us just how horrible they are on Monday Night Football. This Browns defense is tough; the only reason they are this low is that Shedeur Sanders may end up being the starter. If Dillon Gabriel gets cleared, they can slide to the top of this group.
The Saints-Falcons game should go the Falcons’ way. However, they are down to Kirk Cousins, possibly without Drake London, and looked bad last week. This Saints team just hangs around. Don’t be shocked if they pull this one off.
