College Football Playoff: Texas vs Arizona State Preview and Predictions

Both teams entered this season with far different expectations. Texas was somewhat expected to be in this position whereas Arizona State was projected to finish at the bottom of the B12. Despite the difference in expectations, they both have a chance to advance to the final four of the college football playoff. 

College Football Playoff: Texas (-13.5) vs Arizona State Preview and Predictions 

Jan 1, 2025

1:00 PM EST

Mercedes Benz Dome (Atlanta, GA)

ESPN

Last week Texas was responsible for the biggest point spread of the opening games. This week it is no different as they are the biggest favorite on the board yet again. They have flourished in this role all year but with the stakes at an all-time high, how will they respond? 

The question that needs to be answered with the Sun Devils is whether they will be rusty after the long layoff. Of course, being rested has its benefits, but after not playing for nearly a month, it’s a valid question. Texas is not the team they want to start slow with, so Sun Devil fans better hope the rust is not a factor. 

Is this a lopsided matchup? Can Arizona State shock the world? Will Arch Manning play more? Sit back, relax, and let’s break down both sides and get to the window as we did last article. 

How Does Texas Win?

Consistency is the biggest issue for Texas. It was on full display in the opening round. It seemed they were cruising to an easy victory and then the offense got stagnant. After 28 first-half points, Texas was only able to score 10 in the second half. That type of inconsistency can’t keep happening if they want to reach the title game. 

Luckily for them, the defense is just lights out. They are elite against the run, which is Arizona St’s strength. Texas defensively leads FBS in opponents’ available yards gained (28%) and their defensive front is one of the best in the country. They will need to keep the Sun Devils behind the chains and force Leavitt to beat them on 3rd and medium to long. The less they see of Skattebo, the better. 

Offensively, this is going to be a good spot for Ewers. The Sun Devil defense struggles to defend the pass – ranking outside the top 90 in pass success rate allowed. The run game was effective against Clemson and I expect it to be just as effective here BUT expect Ewers to hit a few explosives on this secondary. 

For that to happen, the run game has to be working early. Wisner is a bit banged up but Blue showed he’s more than capable of filling in if he has to. Ewers has always been good in play-action and if we see the run game effective early, this could be a big night with the play-action game. 

With that said, protecting the ball and staying on schedule is huge. Sark took some blame for being a little too pass-heavy over the last month, so I think we see more balance in this game. 

How Does Arizona State Win?

The first thing they should do is pop in the Vanderbilt game. Texas had issues with their offense, especially the QB run game. Pavia had nearly 70 yards on the ground and the Vandy defense held Texas without a touchdown in the second half. 

Sun Devils will need to shorten this game and keep Texas’s offense on the sideline. They have the pieces to do it but they have not faced a defensive unit as good as Texas – actually none even close to this. 

There is no secret as to what Arizona State wants to do. The bigger question is can they do it against such an elite unit? Vandy was in a similar spot and although they had under 50 running back rush yards, Pavia was able to loosen up the defense a bit. 

Vandy also didn’t have Cam Skattebo, who will be the best back the Longhorns have faced this year. Sun Devils want to make sure they are ahead of the chains and out of known passing situations. Defensively, they need to limit explosiveness and try to force some short fields. 

The trenches are the most important factor in this game for Arizona State. They have to play consistently at a high level all game on each side. Controlling the clock as well as limiting turnovers are also key factors if the Sun Devils want to advance. 

Texas Longhorns -13.5

Putting my trust in Ewers and Sark again here. This is a huge step up in class for the Sun Devils and if Texas can start fast, I don’t think Arizona State will be able to throw themselves back into this game. Texas is in a familiar place after playing the SEC championship here so their familiarity with the stadium and environment is a big plus. 

Consistency on a down-to-down basis starts and ends with Sark’s playcalling and Ewers being effective when he has to make a play. This secondary can be had and I expect Ewers to play one of his best games of the year. His best WR (Isaiah Bond) is hopefully back which adds even more potency to that pass attack. 

I don’t think Arizona State quits or goes away but I believe this Texas defense will dominate and force a few short fields which in the end will result in a 17-20 point victory. 

Quinn Ewers Over 251.5 Passing Yards

I’m sure you’ve seen this coming from how the breakdown of the game. Love this spot for Ewers and this passing attack. The strength of the Sun Devil’s defense is their front seven. Not saying Texas will not be able to run the ball, because I believe they can, but this secondary is an advantage they can exploit 

He’s only over this number four times this year which shows just how much of an advantage this pass attack has. The Sun Devil defense has allowed five quarterbacks to go over this number and another few that just missed it. 

In a game with this high of a spread, it would seem like an under due to Texas maybe running the ball more but I disagree. I expect Texas to win by a margin but I believe it will be a methodical victory and they gradually pull away. This keeps Ewers in a neutral game script and being able to get us over this number