NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

It’s NASCAR playoffs time! The field of 16 is locked in and ready to battle it out to be crowned the 2024 NASCAR champion. It’ll all start on Sunday with a battle at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Before we dive into this week’s NASCAR picks at Atlanta, let’s take a look at the track.


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The 1.5-mile track located in Hampton, Georgia was reconfigured after the 2021 season to a high-banked “drafting” track. Like Daytona and Talladega NASCAR uses the superspeedway package. This leads to tight racing, big wrecks, and upset winners. It’ll look a lot like Daytona two weeks ago. So manage that budget wisely and prepare to lose it all this weekend, but be happy if your bets survive the chaos and cash at the end of the day!

NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Denny Hamlin +1000
Ryan Blaney +1000
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1200
Kyle Busch +1200
Kyle Larson +1400
Chase Elliott +1400
William Byron +1400
Daniel Suarez +1600
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Christopher Bell +2000
Chris Buescher +2000
Ross Chastain +2000
Bubba Wallace +2000
Michael McDowell +2000
Austin Cindric +2000
Tyler Reddick +2500
Ty Gibbs +3000
Alex Bowman +3000
Todd Gilliland +3500
Chase Briscoe +4000
Noah Gragson +4000
Erik Jones +5000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5000
Corey Lajoie +5000
Austin Dillion +5000
Josh Berry +5000
Justin Haley +6000
Carson Hocevar +8000
Ryan Preece +8000
John Hunter Nemchek +8000
Harrison Burton +8000
Zane Smith +10000
Daniel Hemric +10000
Shane Van Gisbergen +10000
Cody Ware +35000
JJ Yeley +50000
Bj McLeod +50000

NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Martin Truex Jr Over 11.5 Finishing Position (-140)

Martin Truex Jr announced his retirement from full-time competition after this season, but his on-track performance of late would make you think he’s already retired. Over the last 15 regular season races, Truex has just two finishes better than this number of 11.5.

To amplify how bad it’s been for Truex, over his last eight races, he has just one finish better than 24th place. Last week at the Southern 500, Truex completed just two laps before wrecking out of the race. In the four drafting races we’ve had in 2024, Truex has finished better than 11.5 just one time, although he did finish in 12th here in the spring race.

This is never how you want to see a legend of the sport go out, and maybe he can spark a Tony Stewart-esk run in the playoffs and go out on top, but the numbers right now scream to bet against the 2017 series champion.

Joey Logano Over Kyle Larson (-115)

I often joke on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast that Joey Logano is one of the hardest drivers in the garage to predict. However, in this case, you are putting one of the best drafting track racers up against someone who just isn’t good at this type of racing.

Kyle Larson is the best race car driver in the world, and I stand by that. He is great in all cars and in all places, except for superspeedway racing. In his 45 career starts on drafting tracks in the Cup Series, Kyle Larson only has one career top-five finish.

Through his five starts on the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway, Larson’s finishes are 32nd, 36th, 31st, 13th and 30th. In the four drafting track races this season, Larson hasn’t finished better than 21st.

While anything can happen and Logano could easily get caught up in a wreck as well, he makes it to the end of the race a lot more than Larson does. Logano has won this head-to-head matchup in four of the five races, including two top-10 finishes and a win in March of 2023. It’s all about fading Kyle Larson on drafting tracks and it’s been a strategy that’s paid off for us for a long time.

NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

Corey Lajoie Top 10 Finish (+350) & to Win (+5000)

There has been nothing more profitable for me over the years than betting Corey Lajoie on drafting tracks, especially at Atlanta. He was so close to cashing a 250/1 ticket to win the race in July of 2022 when he was leading with just two laps to go.

In five races on the new track, Lajoie has twice scored a top five in addition to that race where he led 19 laps and was leading with two to go before ultimately finishing 21st. He’s coming off his first career non-superspeedway top 10 finish, and still looking for a job in 2025, this is a great time to continue to showcase what he can do.

Chase Elliott to Win (+1400)

Much like his dad on the old configuration, Chase Elliott has been solid on this new drafting style track. He’s only made four starts here after missing a race last year due to his injury. In those four starts, he’s never finished worse than 15th and has a win in July of 2022. He’s a strong drafting track racer overall and at 14/1 is a good price to bet on.

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