It happens every year in fantasy football. You’re on the clock, and you pick the best available player. Maybe you don’t realize it right away, or perhaps it’s something that starts at the beginning of the season. However, every year, multiple players become fantasy football busts compared to their ADP (average draft position).
This doesn’t always mean they are terrible players or bad fantasy football assets. However, a player drafted at an ADP of RB2 that finishes as RB12 is technically an ADP bust.
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2024 Fantasy Football ADP Busts
Joe Burrow (QB7)
I promise Joe Burrow isn’t on my fantasy football ADP busts list just because of his new hairstyle. Although, that doesn’t help. The main argument I heard against Burrow before his injury last year was that both Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins were injured and in and out of games. However, I don’t think you can use the injury excuse as much as you may think.
In games that Chase, Higgins, and Burrow all played and were healthy, Burrow averaged just 12.13 points per game over the six games. Had that been his average throughout the season, it would have placed him 35th overall on a per-game average. He ended up with a couple of good games that allowed him to finish 26th on a per-game average in fantasy football.
We also don’t know if Ja’Marr Chase will see the field. More on that later when we talk about wide receivers. Something was going on with how Joe Burrow was playing before his injury. We also now have multiple seasons where Burrow has missed multiple games. His health is a bit of a concern as he can always get reinjured.
Without the elite rushing upside, the disappointing numbers we saw even when he had his top receivers on the field, and an offensive line that may not be all that much better, I worry about drafting Joe Burrow. He could still be a top-12 quarterback.
However, I don’t see him finishing in the top seven. It definitely feels like Burrow could easily be an ADP bust. Check out Old-Fashioned Football’s top-12 quarterback lists.
De’Von Achane (RB10)
This isn’t a knock on De’Von Achane or his talent. He showed the ability to make massive plays and big-chunk yardage. However, there are still a lot of question marks around the running back room for the Dolphins. Being drafted as a top-ten running back when we haven’t even seen him handle a full workload feels very dangerous to me. De’Von Achane is working himself into a fantasy football ADP bust.
First of all, Achane’s health is one of the first concerns. Achane is a smaller back, and despite being a speedy big-play machine at times, we aren’t sure he will be able to stay healthy if he’s their starting running back. At just 5-9 and 183 pounds, Achane is a smaller-sized back that will always have a slightly higher risk of injury than the stockier backs.
Another concern of mine when it comes to drafting Achane as a top-ten running back is the running back room in Miami. Last year’s fantasy football RB2, Raheem Mostert, is still on the team.
Despite being older and injury-prone, he isn’t just going to disappear. The Dolphins will use him on the field, likely as their early downback. Jeff Wilson, not Achane, took his place when he was injured last year. Wilson is also still on the team.
The crowded backfield doesn’t end there. The Dolphins drafted Jaylen Wright in the 2024 NFL Draft this year. Wright is a bruising back who could end up stealing some red zone touches from all of these backs.
Achane is a very talented player. However, drafting him as the tenth running back off the board feels like drafting him at the very top of his ceiling. This makes him a fantasy football ADP bust.
D’andre Swift (RB21)
D’Andre Swift had a decent year last year. He finished as running back 23 in a half-PPR (points per reception) league while on the Eagles. Now, Swift is on his third team in three years as he joins the Chicago Bears. He’s currently being drafted as the 21st running back off the board.
The Bears should have a good offense. Rookie Caleb Williams joins the Bears, who had D.J. Moore last year. They’ve also added Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Gerald Everett to accompany Moore. They still have tight end Cole Kmet, who has found success each year of his career.
Swift joins a backfield that returns to players from last year, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. While Swift should be the top option in the backfield, the Bears are notorious for using multiple backs. Coach Matt Eberflus believes in the hot-hand approach. This means that if Khalil Herbert pops off like he seemed to do in preseason, where he dominated carries, he could out-pace Swift.
Swift should have a decent year on the Bears. However, suppose you don’t think the Bears’ offense will be better than last year’s Eagles’ offense. In that case, it doesn’t make sense to draft him above where he finished last year, especially with a team with so many options, including the guy who appears to be a team favorite, Khalil Herbert.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR5)
This somewhat goes hand-in-hand with my pick of Joe Burrow being on the fantasy football ADP busts list. Much like Burrow, Chase just wasn’t as explosive last year.
He had two weeks in a row where everything seemed to be clicking, and scored 28.7 and 29 points. If you take those two games out, he averaged a little over 12 points per game. While this is still a decent number, it would put him as wide receiver 14, not wide receiver five.
He’s dropped one spot in ADP, starting the year at the fourth spot. I think he could continue to drop. The other glaring issue with Ja’Marr Chase is that he is currently in a contract dispute. While he’s showing up to practice, he is not practicing with the team. While the veteran doesn’t need reps, it certainly could help with the flow and comfort of everything.
Sources close to the matter have said they believe Chase will not step onto the field if he doesn’t get a new contract. This makes him an even riskier draft choice. Some of you played this game once with Le’Veon Bell, thinking there was no way he’d sit out all year. We were wrong and wasted a round-one pick on him. Don’t make the same mistake twice.
Davante Adams (WR10)
There’s no doubt that Davante Adams is a stud. He’s been a top wide receiver in the league for years. However, Adams is reaching the age of 31. Joining the over-30 club has seen some receivers struggle to make the same impact they’ve had in the past.
This offense is a little different than it used to be. Before Antonio Pierce took over as interim coach, the Raiders seemed to throw the ball slightly more. Now, Pierce has become the head coach, committing more to the run.
Pierce took over in Week 9. After he took over, Adams averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues. Over a full season, this would put him at WR15, which is a respectable spot but not the WR10 price he’s fetching right now.
The Raiders have also added more weapons. They added Brock Bowers, the top tight-end in the draft. While he plays tight-end and not receiver, the Raiders will want to get him the ball as much as possible.
Adams will be a stud again; however, he’s a WR2 at best. He’s being drafted as a WR1, and he will let many people down.
Stefon Diggs (WR21)
Stefon Diggs is another wide receiver over 30 years old who makes our fantasy football busts list. Diggs finds himself on his third team in his career, after being traded from the Bills to the Texans.
Diggs seems to cause a lot of controversy. This led to the Vikings wanting to move on from him and now the Bills. He appears to complain if he’s not the top-targeted receiver. He now goes to a Texans team that utilizes multiple weapons, including the two CJ Stroud had a great connection with last year, Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Diggs started 2023 very well. He was the top-targeted player on the Bills. He remained the top-targeted player, but his conversion with those targets decreased. Diggs averaged 17.82 fantasy points per game in the first half of the season. He only averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game in the second half of the season.
This huge drop, plus joining a team that already has established weapons that are also very talented, will drop him down from his normal production. Finishing WR15 last year and only dropping six spots this year just doesn’t feel like enough of a drop. I’d avoid him if you can.
David Njoku (TE10)
The first tight end on the fantasy football ADP busts list is David Njoku. Njoku is currently being drafted as the tenth tight end off the board around the eighth or ninth round. While Njoku has shown flashes of big play ability and of being a valuable tight end, he may be held back by the current offense and quarterback play.
Last year, Deshaun Watson was the starting quarterback for the Browns until he got injured. While he was the starting quarterback, Njoku averaged just 5.3 fantasy points per game. After Watson left with an injury, he was eventually replaced by veteran Joe Flacco.
Flacco came in and showed poise, helping the team and Njoku’s fantasy value. In games Flacco started, Njoku averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game—almost a ten-point difference.
If Njoku averaged 15.2 points per game all season, he’d be a top-ten tight end. However, he wasn’t averaging that during Watson’s time as the starter, and that may not change. This is why Njoku falls on my bust list.
This was not too high for David Njoku. He turned his hands side-to-side and clap-attacked this. Drop. #ClevelandBrowns pic.twitter.com/xPdGgM0lvv
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 19, 2023
Travis Kelce (TE1)
You hate to put such a talented tight end on your fantasy football ADP busts list. However, Travis Kelce is now being drafted at an ADP of the first tight end off the board. Earlier this season it was Sam Laporta taking that spot.
Kelce is very talented, and I still expect him to have a good year. However, finishing as the top tight end in the league at the age of 34 is a lot to ask, especially when there’s so much younger talent that has been performing well, such as Laporta, Kincaid, Pitts, and McBride.
If you feel strongly about Travis Kelce, you have to risk taking him as the top tight end off the board. Kelce showed signs of slowing down last year, and I think you’re going to continue to see signs of him slowing down. He had some big games, don’t get me wrong, but he also had some moments where his age seemed to show.
It was the first time in years that Kelce went under 1,000 receiving yards. While I expect the Chiefs to throw the ball more this year, they’ve added more weapons in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. Kelce only scored one touchdown in the last eight games of the season. He also only averaged 4.8 catches and 50 yards a game in the last eight games.
This means that he averaged 10.6 points per game in a PPR (points per reception) league in the last eight games. That average over a year would put him as the eighth tight end, right behind Cole Kmet of last year. Don’t let some of those earlier big games fool you. Travis Kelce is no longer the tight end one of the NFL.
