Win totals are the ultimate proof of all the hard work you put in during the off-season. What if I told you there is a more profitable way to bet these win totals? Alternate win totals have been around for a while but have become more popular over the last few seasons. Let’s get into some of my favorite NFL alternate win total bets!
Every year, we see a team go from worst to first or vice versa. Several factors go into that happening, but regardless, the sample size is large and proven. Alternate win totals range anywhere from two to four wins added to the teams’ original regular season wins.
In my opinion, the standard alternate win total is two additional wins, and that is what we will use in this article.
Last year, 13 teams surpassed or failed to reach their alternate win total. That is roughly 41% of the league, which seems on par with previous seasons. Below, we will try to go 100% with my three favorite alternate win totals for the upcoming season.
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NFL Alternate Win Total Best Bets
Seattle Seahawks OVER 9.5 (+195) – Regula Win Total: 7.5 (-138)
If you read my longshots article, you saw this coming. I have so much stock in this team that I might buy a condo in Broadmoor. For starters, their regular win total (7.5) is too low. They have upgraded on both sides of the ball and brought in two new innovative coaches.
Last season, Macdonald’s defense allowed 16.5 points, including holding opponents to 10 points or less on seven different occasions.
The Ravens were also elite on third down and shut teams down in the redzone. Pete Carroll’s defensive scheme was watered down, and it was evident in the metrics. They allowed the most first downs, did not force a ton of turnovers, and were gashed on the ground.
Macdonald, with a full off-season of Leonard Williams along with one of the deeper secondaries in the league, will correct last year’s deficiencies rapidly.
They won nine games last year despite having a below-average defense, and both tackles banged up all year. Those injuries were costly last season, but they built some depth coming into this year. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is bringing a new scheme in, which will amplify the weapons in that offense.
The division is one of the best in the NFC, but Seattle has always been competitive at the top. Great home-field advantage, and with a new innovative coaching staff, I trust them to improve immensely and win double-digit games.
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 12.5 (+310) – Regular Win Total: 10.5 (-134)
There has never been a more chastised 11-win team than the Eagles last year. Eagles fans experienced the full range of emotions last year. From winning 10 of their first 11 games to losing six of their last seven – including a playoff beatdown in Tampa Bay.
It was evident that Jalen Hurts was hampered by injuries towards the latter of the year. His inability to make plays with his arm at times was the downfall of the offense.
Of the six losses, three were by a field goal or less. Another was without Jalen Hurts in week 18. So, they are not far off of going over 12.5 with a horrible pass defense, a banged-up quarterback, and two questionable coordinators.
Fast-forward to now, and they have a tough but manageable schedule and an upgrade on the defensive side, which I believe will lift them to 13+ wins.
Their two toughest games are on the road, and the early bye (Week 4) is concerning, but the depth on the roster should be able to withstand it. I have them favored in 14 games—five of those by a touchdown or higher. In their underdog role, they will only be getting a field goal or less.
Outside of Dallas, they have dominated the division. They are a combined 28-7 in the last 35 against the Giants and Commanders. With a split against Dallas and, at worst, losing one of the four games with the other two, we are at four wins already.
Can they find nine more with a loaded and motivated roster? I think they may do that, plus some. Expecting a huge season from the birds.
P.S. Sean did not make me write this. These are my thoughts, and I apologize to Ryan.
Tennessee Titans UNDER 4.5 wins (+220) – Regular Win Total: 6.5 -134
Titans moved on from the Mike Vrabel era as well as one of the more storied players in franchise history, Derrick Henry. In marches Brian Callahan from the Bengals, where he was offensive coordinator. He brings in longtime offensive line guru Bill Callahan, who just so happens to be his father.
Bill has his work cut out for him as he will be inheriting one of the worst offensive lines in the league. They did a few good things but overall, it’s going to be a tough year as they will be relying on the younger guys a lot.
Due to their inability to draft particularly well, the roster’s depth is thin. Add that to questions at quarterback in a tougher division, and that’s trouble. Will Levis went 3-6 in his starts and failed to put together a consistent body of work. He does get a little better at the skill position with the additions of Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley, but I’m not sure that is enough.
How much of that matters behind an offensive line that graded out as the worst in the NFL and gave up nearly 50 sacks last year? He also will not have Derrick Henry to hand the ball off to which helped ease some of the stress for Levis.
I have the Titans underdogs in 15 games – 10 of those by more than a field goal. The strength of schedule is middle of the pack, but if they don’t start well, we could see them try for a top pick. The defense is ahead of the offense, especially with the additions of L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, but they can only do so much.
The regular win total is set at 6.5, with the juice on the under. 4-13 is more likely than 7-10 or even 5-12. They are the undeniably worst team in the division and have a brand-new coaching staff with limited depth.
Even their President of Football Operations stated it would take a few years to get back in contention. After seeing their roster and schedule, who am I to disagree?
