We are a little over five weeks until the Hall of Fame game. July is typically when football fans can feel the season approaching rapidly. As we roll out team previews, win totals, and future bets, why not throw some longshots in? Today, we’ll dive into the NFL Awards Market!
Betting a little to win a lot is the American dream—well, it is in our world. Generally, in NFL awards markets, the pre-season favorite does not win. The uncertainty of not knowing who will emerge and who will regress makes betting futures that much more exciting.
To me, longshot bets are defined as anything +1500 or above. Well, at least for this article, that’s what we’re going with. Last year, we saw a few long shots come in. The biggest was Joe Flacco winning comeback player of the year at various big prices.
Today, we will review a few of my favorite long shots in various awards markets. All of these are widely available, but be sure to shop around and get the best number.
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2024 NFL Awards Market Longshot Best Bets
Defensive Player Of The Year – Quinnen Williams – 80/1
The defensive line has dominated this award. Of the last ten winners, eight have been on the defensive line. The best DT to ever play retired this year and the title for best DT in the league is up for grabs. One of the players in contention is Quinnen Williams.
Per PFF, there have been only three players to grade out 90 or above over the past few seasons. Guess who was one of those three? You got it.
2022 was a breakout year for Quinnen, as he earned all-pro first-team honors. In 2023, he was not as dominant but still graded out well and made the Pro Bowl. The difference was his inability to consistently counter double teams.
The defense spending a lot of time on the field also brought down his production. With Aaron Rodgers back, the offense should be able to sustain more drives, which will help an already elite defense.
Speaking of help, the Jets added Javon Kinlaw and Hassan Reddick in the off-season—two players who will ease some pressure off Williams and allow him to be more one-on-one. Not to mention, they have a player in the secondary who can shut down a single side of the field.
That just adds more time for Quinnen to turn into his 2022 self. It’s not many times you’ll get an elite defensive lineman at such big odds, so let’s take advantage while we can.
Defensive Rookie Of The Year – Payton Wilson – 30/1
It’s not often you see a second-round player with the 10th-best odds to win an award. As is the case with most second-rounders, playing time is the biggest question. In Wilson’s case, he went to a team that had linebacker issues due to injury.
We know what Patrick Queen is going to do. That’s a given. Elandon Roberts and Cole Holecomb are the other two guys who are in front of Wilson.
Holecomb is coming off an injury, which could benefit Wilson early on if the Steelers want to bring Holecomb along slowly. Wilson has played at a high level at NC State for multiple years.
He was a consensus All-American and won the Bednarik and Butkus awards. The responsibility he had at NC State was heavy, and he exceeded expectations. That is exactly why he will thrive in this system, which is known for having great linebackers.
Two of the last three Defensive Rookie of the Year awards have gone to linebackers. Granted those players were picked higher, I think Wilson can have a similar impact once he takes over. Once he gets on the field, it will be hard to get him off.
NFC Conference Winner – Seattle Seahawks – 28/1
There are eight teams with better odds than Seattle to win the NFC. Five of those I don’t think are too far ahead. I know they have a new coach and play in a tough division, but there is a lot to like about this Seahawks team. They finished 9-8 last year and narrowly missed the playoffs.
Mike Macdonald, coming in from Baltimore, will improve the defense, no doubt about it. They have versatility at every level, and an improved defensive line should thrive in this scheme.
They ranked last in first downs allowed and rushing yards over expectation last season. That changes with a full off-season of Leonard Williams and one of the best run-stoppers in the draft, Byron Murphy, coming in.
Like the defensive line, the secondary is versatile and filled with talent. Adding Rayshawn Jenkins gives them depth at safety, and the corners are deep and experienced as well. Like the defense, the offense gets a makeover with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Offensively, they were fine, but the defense let them down more times than not. Grubb will be bringing a new scheme that Geno and backup quarterback Sam Howell have been raving about thus far. The weapons are some of the best in the NFL, with the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the slot.
The schedule is manageable, and the NFC is not overly difficult. Many of their tough non-conference games are at home, and they have one of the best home fields in the league.
If all things align with this new regime, Seattle could go from wild card to NFC championship. At this number, I think it is a good bet.
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards – Garrett Wilson – 24/1
Wilson racked up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle as his quarterbacks. I think it’s safe to say Rodgers is an upgrade from those guys. They also added Mike Williams and a rookie in Malachi Corley, who I believe will have an instant impact for them.
The sweet spot is high, 1600 to mid-1700 yard-wise. Previous winners have, on average, been around those numbers, with a few outliers in the high 1800s to low 1900s.
Wilson ranked 4th in targets last year and 8th in his rookie year. Add Aaron Rodgers, who had great chemistry with him during the off-season last year, and his numbers should rise even more.
