No matter what sport you bet on, you’re always looking for an edge. Folks pour over splits, looking for the slightest trend or outlier to exploit. MMA gambling is no different. There are countless articles dedicated to looking for that edge when betting on the UFC and other large promotions. Do weight classes affect the finish rates? Do the winners of the first fights win the rematches? Are underdogs hitting more this year than in the past? While those questions might lend you a slight edge over books, the biggest MMA betting edge is coming from the regional MMA scene in places like CFFC and LFA.
We dove into some of the ways that MMA betting can be made easier with these promotions.
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MMA Gambling Hidden Gem – Regional MMA
Regional MMA Main Events
Even if you don’t know a lot about regional MMA, the main events for some of the bigger US-based promotions have been a gold mine. Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) and Cage Fury Fighting Championships (CFFC ) are two of the biggest feeder promotions for the UFC and other larger promotions. The main events in those promotions during 2023 have been wildly unpredictable but in a way that could easily help you beat the books.
In 20 LFA events this year, closing favorites have gone 9-10, with one of the fights closing as a pick’em. In 9 CFFC events this year, favorites have tallied a mark of just 5-4. That means if you combine the two promotions, underdogs and favorites have split 14-14 this year. This means if you just blindly bet on underdogs for the entirety of the year, you’d see nearly a 25% return on investment for the year.
Wildly Variable Lines
When regional levels first post, there are very few books that have lines. Many of these books serve as a test market for the larger books that later post. Because they are smaller and have very few data points on the fighters in question, they tend to set small limits until they can figure out where the public is at. Although this stops people from scoring too big on any botched lines, it is a great place to find value.
Badmatsyren “The Immortal Lotus” Dorzhiev now 7-0 https://t.co/zMaFZMLcxS pic.twitter.com/pY14Y5Flj2
— caposa (@Grabaka_Hitman) April 24, 2023
Take CFFC 122 as an example. When the lines were posted, Badmatsyren Dorzhiev came out as a +155 underdog in a featured fight. Robert Watley similarly came out in the main event as a +165 underdog. By the time the fights rolled around, Dorzhiev had flipped to -170, and Watley dropped to -140. Just hitting the underdogs when they came out would allow you maximum profit or would allow you to hedge out for profit. While flips that large can happen in all sports, it’s far more common in regional MMA.
Deceiving Records
A lot of times, the books draw up odds on these fights surrounding the last fights and overall records. While recency bias is an issue with any sport and at any level, it seems far more of an issue in regional MMA. Take a look at the recent LFA 167 main event. Devin Smyth was a +350 underdog who had gone as high as +375 during fight week.
However, Smyth, unlike his opponent, had fought in beat fighters currently in the UFC. His opponent, Jonathan Piersma, was 0-1 against UFC fighters and had mostly fought newcomers and journeymen.
Some of that line was based on a layoff for Smyth or his recent loss. A little bit of a deeper dive on the fighter could have yielded some big returns, though – as is true for a lot of fights at this level.
If you’d like even more regional MMA betting like LFA or CFFC, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
