Week 5 is here, and it’s still only September. The good news is that there’s a nice, big slate to build an Underdog Fantasy College Football Higher/Lower Pick’em Entry. It’s time to move past the weird non-conference games and move into conference play. We’ve also got four weeks of data to help us better understand where we might have an edge.
Underdog Fantasy College Football Week 5 Higher/Lower Plays
We’ve gone through this week’s plays and have five picks that you may want to have in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em Entry. Sadly, Bo Nix is off this week, so his rushing yards total won’t make an appearance. However, we do have one quarterback rushing total and a few passing yards totals to play for Week 5.
South Carolina vs. Tennessee: Spencer Rattler Higher 264.5 Passing Yards
The books have made a mistake on this one. South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler has been over 265 passing yards in three of his first four games this year. The only game he missed? He threw for 256 against Georgia.
The Vols defense hasn’t really been tested through the air this year. They’re averaging only 167.7 passing yards against, but their resume is a bit fraudulent.
The Tennessee defense shut down the Virginia passing attack in Week 1, but limiting Cavaliers quarterback Tony Muskett isn’t an accomplishment this year. The Vols allowed 260 yards through the air to Austin Peay’s Mike DiLiello in Week 2. They followed that effort by keeping Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz under 200 yards in Week 3, but that was only because the Gators didn’t need to throw in the second half. UTSA used a pair of quarterbacks to rack up 230 yards through the air against Tennessee in Week 4.
Also, South Carolina is legitimately terrible at running the ball. They averaged 65 rush yards per game but only 2.1 yards per carry. If the Gamecocks are going to move the ball at all, it’s going to be with Spencer Rattler throwing it.
There’s also a good chance that South Carolina will need to throw late to get back into the game.
Rattler should have no problem clearing a number that’s a bit too low. Look to go higher on Spencer Rattler’s passing yards on Saturday.
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State: Dillon Gabriel Higher 266.5 Passing Yards
Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel has cleared 267 passing yards in three out of his first four games. The SMU Mustangs managed to contain Gabriel, but he still threw for four touchdowns and went 19-for-27 through the air.
Iowa St. is only allowing 178.7 yards through the air so far this year, but they also have a questionable resume. They’ve played home games against Northern Iowa and Iowa so far this year. Neither of those teams is known for a prolific passing attack, and neither cleared 200 yards against the Iowa State defense.
Week 3 saw the Cyclones defense hold the high-powered Ohio Bobcats offense under 200 yards through the air. Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke was likely still feeling the effects of his Week Zero injury and really struggled. It was also a Big 12 defense against a MAC offense. That doesn’t usually go well for the MAC.
Iowa State opened their conference schedule in Week 4 and gave up 278 yards through the air to Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman.
Dillon Gabriel is in his second year with the Sooners and has a lot more weapons at his disposal. This game is also in Norman. Iowa State handled Gabriel last year, but that was held in Ames.
Gabriel has this Oklahoma offense absolutely humming. He cleared the higher number last week and should do the same against an Iowa State defense that hasn’t looked as strong against Big 12 competition. Look to go higher on Gabriel in your Underdog Fantasy College Football Pick’em Entry.
Florida vs. Kentucky: Graham Mertz Lower 195.5 Passing Yards
Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz has been under 195.5 yards passing in two of his first four games this year. He had his pads off for about half of the game against McNeese St. and was held to 166 yards against the Tennessee Volunteers.
Mertz should find passing equally tough against a capable Kentucky Wildcats defense.
The Wildcats have averaged 214.7 passing yards against per game this year. Kentucky’s resume so far is pretty weak. Their non-conference schedule featured Ball St., Eastern Kentucky, and Akron. They did face an SEC team in Week 4, but it was Vanderbilt, and they still allowed the Commodores to throw for 231 yards in a game that was over at halftime.
They should still be able to hold Graham Mertz under 200 yards passing. First, this is at Kroger Field in Lexington. Second, the Florida Gators don’t have a great offensive line, and Kentucky does have a very capable front seven. There’s a good chance that Mertz could end up turtling up or throwing the ball away more often than he would like.
Going to Kentucky is a terrible matchup for Mertz, and the 195.5 is a little too high. Look to go lower on this total on Saturday.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M: K.J. Jefferson Higher 36.5 Rushing Yards
We just saw K.J. Jefferson rush for 48 yards against LSU, so why is this number so low when he’s facing Texas A&M? Well, part of it is the Texas A&M defense, but that’s a bit overrated.
The Aggies have faced New Mexico and Louisiana-Monroe in two of their first four games. ULM does have a running quarterback in Jiya Wright, but he was held to 34 yards on five carries.
Texas A&M faced Miami and Auburn in their other two games. Miami has a lawn chair in Tyler Van Dyke, and Auburn has a mess.
The Aggies have allowed 109.8 rushing yards per game with a schedule that featured a pair of cupcakes. Arkansas has averaged 162.0 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback K.J Jefferson has gone over 36.5 yards in two out of four matchups, but one of those was a Week 1 game against Western Carolina. Jefferson was watching the second half of the blowout from the sidelines.
Jefferson ran for 105 yards against the Aggies last year. He probably won’t reach triple digits on Saturday, but he should clear the number that the books are set. Make sure that Jefferson’s rushing yards are set to ‘Higher’ this weekend.
Washington at Arizona: Rome Odunze Higher 103.5 Receiving Yards
Rome Udonze has gone over 100 yards receiving in each of his first four games this year. That’s 100+ receiving yards against California, Michigan St., Boise St., and Tulsa. Washington goes on the road to Tempe to face Arizona, and Odunze should make it five in a row.
Huskies quarterback Michael Penix is excellent at hitting Odunze in stride and allowing him to rack up that valuable YAC.
The Arizona Wildcats have averaged 230.3 passing yards against in their first four games, but they haven’t faced anything close to the Washington offense. The Huskies should be able to do what they want, and a big part of that is putting the ball in Rome Odunze’s hands. Look to go higher on receiving yards for Odunze in your Higher / Lower Pick’em for Underdog Fantasy College Football.
Do you want even more college football betting advice? Check out The College Football Experience podcast hosted by Colby Dant, NC Nick, and Patty C. If that’s not enough, we also have the FCS version and a dedicated Big 12 podcast to keep you covered for the entire weekend. Listen to the shows, take our expert advice, and let it ride!
