The UFC octagon returns Down Under for the first time in almost three and a half years for UFC 284 this weekend. We get a champ vs champ superfight in the main event, with the lightweight champion going up against the featherweight champion. Plus, a fight card packed with Aussies. Here are my UFC 284 predictions.
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UFC 284 Predictions
All odds courtesy of WynnBet
Alexander Volkanovski (+310) vs Islam Makhachev
Yep, I’m going with the big underdog in the main event and I’m backing UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski. Much has been made about how much bigger Islam Makhachev is than Volkanovski, but height means nothing in MMA (I’ve tracked the stats – being taller is statistically insignificant in terms of winning a fight) and Volkanovksi has a one-inch reach advantage. And the man famously used to weigh over 200 pounds in his rugby league days and fought at welterweight to start his career. I think he’ll be plenty big enough here. Plus, he’s only spent 3% of his UFC career being controlled in the wrestling/grappling realm. And he’s going to be the much better striker in this fight, and his fight IQ is second to none.
Yair Rodriguez (-165) vs Josh Emmett
However, I will take the much taller betting favorite in the co-main event. Josh Emmett spends the majority of his fights (90%) striking at distance, yet he’s been outstruck in this realm over his career. Yair Rodriguez is not only the bigger, younger fighter, but he’s also a much better distance striker as well as a more active grappler.
Jack Della Maddalena (-340) vs Randy Brown
Randy Brown is a nice step-up in competition for young Jack Della Maddalena, but I think the welterweight prospect will have no issues clearing this bar in front of the home crowd. Della Maddalena hasn’t lost since dropping his first two professional MMA fights (2016), is six years younger than Brown, and is a far better and more dangerous striker.
Parker Porter (+105) vs Justin Tafa
I don’t get why Parker Porter is the underdog in this heavyweight matchup, but I’m not complaining. Justin Tafa hasn’t fought since December 2021 (a fight in which he became the first man in UFC history to miss weight at heavyweight), has been outstruck over his UFC career, and has only won one of his last three. Porter is the better striker (not as powerful though) and grappler, and has won three of his last four. Give me the dog money.
Alonzo Menifield (+160) vs Jimmy Crute
Here’s another fight that I don’t understand the betting line for. Jimmy Crute has been knocked out in his last two fights, hasn’t fought since December 2021, and hasn’t won since October 2020. Alonzo Menifield just so happens to knock people out (10 knockouts in 13 wins) including his last two opponents, has won four of five, and has a slight reach advantage to utilize his striking with.
Tyson Pedro (-245) vs Modestas Bukauskas
Modestas Bukauskas washed out of the UFC on his first run, going 1-3. Now he’s back, but on short notice, against a surging fighter. Tyson Pedro has knocked out two straight opponents and hasn’t lost since December 2018. He should be the better striker and grappler in this fight, plus he’ll be fighting on home soil.
Josh Culibao (-110) vs Melsik Baghdasaryan
Now this fight is priced correctly on the books in my eyes – a pick ’em. This is a really tough one to call between two up-and-coming featherweights. I’m leaning Josh Culibao as I think his resume is a bit better, and he’s got a three-inch reach advantage in what will probably be a striking battle. Plus, Melsik Baghdasaryan has been out of action since November 2021.
Kleydson Rodrigues (-340) vs Shannon Ross
Shannon Ross will be making his UFC debut after having lost on Dana White’s Contender Series. Kleydson Rodrigues is just plain better, and six years younger. Chalk.
Jamie Mullarkey (-275) vs Francisco Prado
Chalk again. Francisco Prado is making his UFC debut here after having never fought for any big regional promotions. Jamie Mullarkey is better, more experienced, and has the size advantage.
Jack Jenkins (-365) vs Don Shainis
Jack Jenkins really impressed in his win on last season of DWCS, part of a seven-fight winning streak for him (his last loss was in March 2018). Now he gets a 0-1 UFC fighter in Don Shainis who got beaten in 30 seconds in his UFC debut. Plus, Jenkins is an Aussie. Home cooking.
Loma Lookboonme (-295) vs Elise Reed
Loma Lookboonme bounced back from her second UFC loss to beat Denise Gomes. The Muay Thai world champion will be far too good of a striker for Elise Reed in this strawweight matchup.
Blake Bilder (+115) vs Shane Young
Let’s get in on some more dog action here in Blake Bilder. Making his UFC debut after winning on DWCS, Bilder has gone 7-0-1 as a pro, finishing his last four opponents. Shane Young has lost two straight, and not to the greatest of competition.
Zubaira Tukhugov (-545) vs Elves Brenner
Elves Brenner is making his UFC debut in this fight on short notice. That’s enough reason to pick against him. But it also helps that Zubaira Tukhugov is on another level as a fighter.
Overall Record: 945-643
2023
Record: 22-14
Earnings: -($434.78)
Return on Investment: -12.1%
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