If you live on the east coast, get ready for a late night on Saturday. UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Spivak (aka UFC Vegas 68) has a 10:00 PM Eastern start time on Saturday night, as the card was originally scheduled to take place in South Korea (instead it’s at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas). Here are all your winning picks for the event, in advance.
UFC Vegas 68 Predictions
All odds courtesy of WynnBet
Derrick Lewis (+190) vs Sergey Spivak
Hopefully, the second time is the charm, as Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Spivak was supposed to happen at UFC Vegas 65 before a last-minute illness knocked Lewis out of the fight. I’m still going dog. Here’s what I originally wrote back in November:
Sergey Spivak is a better grappler, probably a better technical striker, and is 10 years younger than Lewis. But all that doesn’t matter when you’re dealing with Derrick Lewis. If he finds himself taken down, he just stands back up. The only real way to slay him is to be a dynamic, powerful striker, which Spivak is not. Let’s get that dog money.
Da Un Jung (-245) vs Devin Clark
Da Un Jung should be the better fighter in this light heavyweight clash no matter where the fight takes place. He’s a far more dangerous striker than Devin Clark, as well as a better grappler. Plus he’s got the size (four inches taller, three-inch reach advantage) and youth (three years younger) on his side.
Marcin Tybura (-135) vs Blagoy Ivanov
I’m really liking the number we’re getting on Marcin Tybura in his heavyweight matchup against Blagoy Ivanov. At this point in their careers, he’s the better fighter, having won six of his last seven (Ivanov has gone 3-3 in the UFC). I like Tybura to have the advantage on the feet or on the mat, and he also has a significant size advantage (four inches of height, five inches of reach).
Kyle Nelson (+160) vs Doo Ho Choi
Normally I go striker over grappler, but I’m flipping the script here and taking the grappler in Kyle Nelson. The main reason is ‘The Korean Superboy’ Doo Ho Choi has been out of action since December 2019, and hasn’t won a fight since July 2016. Ring rust is a real thing – fighters who have been out of action for over a year only win 45% of the time. Give me that dog money.
Yusaku Kinoshita (-325) vs Adam Fugitt
Yusaku Kinoshita turned some heads with his spectacular performance on Dana White’s Contender Series. He’s finished all six of his pro wins (four knockouts, two submissions), including TKOing his last two opponents. He’s also 11 years younger than Adam Fugitt. I predict a successful UFC debut for Kinoshita.
Jeka Saragih (+100) vs Anshul Jubli
This event also features the four finals of the Road to the UFC tournament. In the lightweight finals, I’m going with the slight underdog Jeka Saragih, who deaded both of his opponents in this tournament thus far. He also has the better resume than Anshul Jubli, and is a much more dangerous striker.
Jeong Yeong Lee (-255) vs Zha Yi
In going chalk in the featherweight finals, backing Jeong Yeong Lee. He’s a way better striker than Zha Yi, is way bigger, and hasn’t lost a fight since June of 2017.
Rinya Nakamura (-445) vs Toshiomi Kazama
To the bantamweight finals we go. Rinya Nakamura is a world-class championship wrestler who also has crazy knockout power, finishing four of his six MMA victories via KO. He’ll get his hand raised over Toshiomi Kazama on Saturday.
Hyun Sung Park (-200) vs Seung Guk Choi
I’m going with the favorite in the flyweight finals as well. Hyun Sung Park is a perfect 7-0 in MMA, and has finished six straight fights, including his two Road to the UFC opponents. I think he’s better striking and grappling than Seung Guk Choi.
Ji Yeon Kim (-270) vs Mandy Bohm
Things have not gone well for ‘Fire Fist’ Ji Yeon Kim as of late, as she’s lost four straight and five of six. However, she’s been given a nice matchup this weekend against Mandy Bohm. Kim is the far better striker and is the better grappler as well. She should get her first win since October 2019.
Jun Yong Park (-205) vs Denis Tiuliulin
You’ve got to back a guy named ‘The Iron Turtle’, right?! It also helps that Jun Yong Park is a better, and younger, fighter than Denis Tiuliulin, both in the striking and grappling realms (which I realize I’m saying about a lot of fighters on this card).
Tatsuro Taira (-1300) vs Jesus Santos Aguilar
The 12-0 Tatsuro Taira is really, really good. Look at that -1300 line. Enough said.
Overall Record: 939-639
Return on Investment: -10.6%