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UFC 282 Predictions

UFC 282 Predictions

It’s pay-per-view time again in UFC land, but we’ve got a bit of a weird one this month. With the original main event of Jiri Prochazka vs Glover Teixeira off due to Prochazka’s injury – and his subsequent forfeiting of the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship – the co-main event has been bumped up to the top, for the vacant belt. With some other fights falling off the card, we’re left with not the most stacked PPV card. Regardless, we are going to make money off of it with my UFC 282 predictions.

 

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UFC 282 Predictions

All odds courtesy of WynnBet

Magomed Ankalaev (-280) vs Jan Blachowicz

UFC 282 Predictions

This line is a little screwy in my eyes. Yes, I’m still picking Magomed Ankalaev to beat former champ Jan Blachowicz, but I feel like the line should be much closer. However, Ankalaev is much younger than Blachowicz (nine years), with way less wear on his tires (19 fights vs 38). He’s also won nine straight fights and is the better and more powerful striker in this matchup.

Paddy Pimblett (-260) vs Jared Gordon

UFC 282 Predictions

Jared Gordon in a co-main event of a UFC PPV?! Uh, ok. I’m totally not sold on Paddy Pimblett being a legit prospect at the UFC level, but I’m still picking him here. The UFC has done a good job protecting ‘The Baddy’ thus far, not really giving him difficult matchups, and this is no different. He’ll have a significant size and youth advantage over Gordon, and should be able to outclass him.

Alex Morono (+155) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

I’m always hammering home the fact that the numbers say to fade a fighter entering a matchup on short notice, and Alex Morono agreed to this fight with only five days to prepare. However, in this case, that’s just allowing us to get a nice number on him since I’m still expecting him to beat Santiago Ponzinibbio. The Ponz just has not been the same fighter since coming back from over two years on the sidelines in early 2021, going 1-3. Morono is four years younger, hasn’t lost a fight in two years, and with this fight being up at 180 pounds instead of 170, won’t have to cut as much weight on short notice.

Dricus Du Plessis (-185) vs Darren Till

ufc 282 predictions

Darren Till is another fighter with extensive time on the shelf who isn’t the same fighter as he once was. In fact, he hasn’t fought in over a year and hasn’t won a fight in over three. Dricus du Plessis is bigger, younger, a better striker, a better grappler, and a finisher. I like him to take care of Till and I like this number we’re getting. Till has been finished in three of his four wins, so if you want an even better number, take DDP inside the distance.

Ilia Topuria (-135) vs Bryce Mitchell

Outside of the main event, this is probably the best matchup on the card, pitting the 15-0 Bryce Mitchell against the 12-0 Ilia Topuria. I’m predicting Mitchell is the one who loses his 0 on Saturday night. ‘The Matador’ has fought a higher level of competition and is a far more well-rounded fighter than Mitchell, skilled not just at grappling but at striking as well.

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Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-175) vs Chris Daukaus

Like his brother showed last weekend, I think Chris Daukaus’s chin is also gone. Or at least compromised, having been knocked out in two straight fights. Not a good trait to have fighting at heavyweight, especially against a powerhouse like Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who has knocked out 11 of his 12 pro victims and will have a size advantage here.

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Jay Perrin (+195) vs Raul Rosas Jr

Ok, I’ve flipped on this pick. Those reading this article when it first was posted would have read that I picked Raul Rosas Jr. However, I’ve thought better of that. I don’t feel like the 18-year-old is ready for the UFC, and hasn’t fought a very high level of competition. Plus, Jay Perrin is entering this fight with a chip on his shoulder and needs to win to save his job, more than likely.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-305) vs Dalcha Lungiambula

I’m counting on former top prospect Edmen Shahbazyan’s change in training camp to get him back on track here after three straight losses, the first defeats of his career. He’s going to be way bigger and way younger than Dalcha Lungiambula, and if he can get back to looking the way he did in the past, way more talented as well.

Chris Curtis (+135) vs Joaquin Buckley

ufc 282 predictions

This middleweight fight has Fight of the Night written all over it. Chris Curtis and Joaquin Buckley always bring it in the cage. Give me the underdog, Curtis, to bounce back from losing to Jack Hermansson on short notice in his last fight. I think he’ll be the more active striker in what should be a slugfest. But this is a tough one to call on paper.

Billy Quarantillo (-165) vs Alexander Hernandez

There once was a time when there were high hopes for Alexander Hernandez, but those days are long gone. He likes to strike at distance for most of his fights, yet isn’t very good at it. Billy Quarantillo should be able to piece him out on the feet, and is also a solid and willing grappler.

Erik Silva (-115) vs T.J. Brown

Erik Silva makes his UFC debut on Saturday in what is essentially a pick ’em fight against T.J. Brown, after earning his way in on Dana White’s Contender Series in a fight he didn’t allow any strikes to be landed against him. I like him to use his wrestling and grappling to win this fight.

Vinicius Salvador (-215) vs Daniel da Silva

Another DWCS alum makes his debut this week as well, and I’m picking Vinicius Salvador to make that debut a successful one. Daniel da Silva has been thoroughly outclassed in his three UFC fights, and Saturday should be no different. Look for ‘Fenomeno’ to finish him, as he has done to all 14 of his pro victims.

Cameron Saaimon (-345) vs Steven Koslow

Make it three straight DWCS standouts kicking off Saturday’s card. And I’m also picking this one – Cameron Saaimon – to win his debut. Steven Koslow is also making his UFC debut, but on short notice, and Saaimon is far more talented.

Overall Record: 916-623

2022
Record: 310-169
Earnings:  -($543.60)
Return on Investment:  -1.1%

 

 

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Jeff Fox is the evil genius behind https://moneymma.substack.com. His work has also appeared in SLAM, Athlon Sports, FIGHT! & Fighters Only magazines, SI.com, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and many other fine establishments across the globe.

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