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UFC 278 – 5 Props and Totals to Target

UFC 278

LAS VEGAS, NV – OCTOBER 9: Alexandr Romanov meets with the press following the win after UFC Vegas 39: Dern v Rodriguez on October 9, 2021, at UFC Apex on in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages) UFC 278

When we head into a fight card, we all have the fighters and the spots that we’ve had our eyes on. However, sometimes there just are the numbers or the values on the moneyline that you want to target. If UFC 278 is one of those cards for you, then it’s time to take a peek at the props and totals for the event – and we’ve got you covered.

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5 Props and Totals for UFC 278

Kamaru Usman – Inside the Distance (+250)

UFC 278 - 5 Props and Totals to Target

JACKSONVILLE, FL – APRIL 24: Kamaru Usman punches Jorge Masvidal in their welterweight bout during the UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal 2 Event at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on April 24, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire)

A lot of people have had this fight circled as an obvious fight to go to decision. It makes sense since Leon Edwards has seen the judges’ scorecards in six of his last seven fights (if you ignored the eye poke of Belal Muhammad). However, Kamaru Usman seems to be prioritizing the finish in his recent fights. In the last five, he’s taken out Gilbert Burns, Jorge Masvidal, and Colby Covington. The only fights he hasn’t finished is a short notice change in opponents and the rematch with Covington.

From a stylistic standpoint, Usman should have a massive wrestling advantage. If he uses it early and often at UFC 278, there should be plenty of opportunity to end this via ground and pound.

 

Luis Saldana vs Sean Woodson – Fight Doesn’t Go to Distance (-110)

This fight is essentially a pick ’em between going the distance and not doing so. However, these two guys currently have 67% of their fights ending by finish. Granted the numbers have come down a little bit since coming to the UFC, but they are a couple of rangy strikers who love to swing it. I imagine both of them obliging each other in that kind of fight. If that is the case, I think one of them will land the big blow that becomes the beginning of the end at UFC 278.

 

Tyson Pedro – Wins in Round 1 (-215)

If you count Contender Series, Harry Hunsucker is 0-3 in his stint with the organization. All three of those losses have come in the first round. Literally every win that Tyson Pedro has ever had came in the first round of the fight. This may not seem like the sexiest prop to target being over -200, but the data seems to be pointing in a pretty easy direction on this one. While picking the exact finish would make the number a little juicier at UFC 278, Pedro is as comfortable with his submissions as he is his hands.

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Alexandr Romanov wins by Submission (+375)

I’m a big fan of Alexandr Romanov’s wrestling skills as well as his newly transformed body. He appears to be in incredible shape and added cardio to a game that seemed to only really be missing that facet. Since coming to the UFC he’s finished 60% of his fights with a submission – including his last one against Chase Sherman.

The reason the prop for his most common finish at UFC 278 is so low is that Marcin Tybura is quite well-versed on the mat himself. He has never been submitted in his professional career. Although that might scare most away from it, Romanov’s cardio should move you back towards it. The takedowns should be there as should his cardio late. Expect some kind of bizarre submission late in the fight – like the forearm choke he got Marcos Rogerio de Lima with.

Miranda Maverick – Inside the Distance (+140)

Surprising to some people, this fight with Shanna Young at UFC 278 is a rematch for Miranda Maverick. However, the fight doesn’t appear on official professional records as it was part of Invicta’s Phoenix Series. In their previous throw down, Maverick subbed Young in less than a round. If you include that fight, three of Young’s last four losses have come inside the distance with the only exception being a drubbing she took from Macy Chiasson, which was nearly finished several times.

 

If you’d like even more information on UFC 278, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. Gumby and Jeff are coming to your ears four times a week to give you all the knowledge you need to be the smartest guy at the bar. 

 

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Daniel "Gumby" Vreeland has been an MMA writer for over a decade. His credits include FloCombat, Fight! Magazine, The UG and MMA-Manifesto. In addition to writing, "Gumby" hosts the Top Turtle Podcast and is a member of the UFC's ranking panel. In addition to having a purple belt in jiu jistu, Gumby was also a seldom used D3 relief pitcher.

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