Last week’s UFC Austin was one hell of an exciting event to watch, but sadly it wasn’t so exciting for my bankroll. I took a hit. But I’ve dusted myself off and am ready to get back to my winning ways this weekend in Las Vegas. Here are my UFC Vegas 57 predictions.
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UFC Vegas 57 Predictions
All odds courtesy of PointsBet
Mateusz Gamrot (+225) vs Arman Tsarukyan
And I’m coming out hot right out of the gate by taking a giant underdog in the main event. To me, this lightweight main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrto is very close on paper, so the +225 attached to Gamrot is great value. Plus I’m more impressed with his resume than Tsarukyan’s, so let’s go get this plus money!
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-400) vs Neil Magny
You wouldn’t guess it by the odds, but this is a big step up in competition for welterweight contender Shavkat Rakhmonov. But when you’re 15-0 and have finished all of your opponents up to this point (eight knockouts, seven submissions), you get -400 odds on your side. The Kazakh should pass this test with flying colors and can beat Neil Magny on the feet or the floor. This guy is the real deal.
Alan Baudot (-115) vs Josh Parisian
Next up is a #chunkyguy heavyweight matchup that is a virtual pick ’em on the board. This is probably also a ‘loser leaves town’ match, as neither guy has found much success in the UFC. I’m going with ‘The Black Samourai’ Alan Baudot as he’s at least lost to better people, and has had more success striking than Josh Parisian has.
Thiago Moises (-250) vs Christos Giagos
Christos Giagos likes to fall back on his wrestling when he gets in trouble in fights – that’s not going to work against a grappler like Thiago Moises. Moises has been finished in his last two fights, but one was to stud Islam Makhachev and the other to a much heavier Joel Alvarez. He gets off his skid on Saturday.
Umar Nurmagomedov (-900) vs Nate Maness
The odds for this fight don’t reflect the caliber of fighter Nate Maness is, and are probably skewed by his opponent’s famous last name. That being said, I’m still riding with Umar Nurmagomedov, who is 14-0 and has outstruck his UFC opponents by almost three strikes per minute.
Chris Curtis (-140) vs Rodolfo Vieira
‘Action Man’ Chris Curtis has lived up to that moniker, taking the UFC by storm with two knockout wins in his first two fights. This week he’s up against grappling specialist Rodolfo Vieira, who he should absolutely piece up on the feet and probably make quick work of.
Carlos Ulberg (-110) vs Tafon Nchukwi
The main event of the prelims is a pick ’em light heavyweight fight that I’m expecting to be a striking affair. So I’ll go with the pro kickboxing champion Carlos Ulberg, who has outstruck his UFC opponents by almost five strikes per minute thus far.
T.J. Brown (-220) vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
‘Downtown’ T.J. Brown is my next pick. He’s the better striker, more active, and a better grappler than Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Plus, he’s on a two-fight winning streak and has the better resume of the two men.
Sergey Morozov (-140) vs Raulian Paiva
Sergey Morozov entered the UFC with some steam behind him, only to have gone loss-win-loss over his first three fights in the big show. I think he keeps this pattern alive this weekend and gets the win over Raulian Paiva, who he should get the better of on the feet.
Cody Durden (+104) vs JP Buys
This number has moved considerably, making former favorite Cody Durden the underdog now. Even better for me since I’m picking him here. JP Buys hasn’t shown he can compete at this level yet (0-2 in the UFC), and Durden has the superior striking and grappling stats.
Mario Bautista (-170) vs Brian Kelleher
Mario Bautista is bigger, longer, and much younger than Brian Kelleher. I think his striking is going to be too much for the older man to handle on Saturday.
Jinh Yu Frey (-270) vs Vanessa Demopoulos
Two women strawweights kick things off on Saturday, and I’m backing veteran Jinh Yu Frey, the former Invicta FC Atomweight Champion. She’s better than Vanessa Demopoulos at pretty much everything and has a distinct half-a-foot reach advantage.
Overall Record: 767-539
2022
Record: 161-82
Earnings: $693.82
Return on Investment: 2.9%
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