Perfect 4-0 week against the closing lines for Wong Teasers! Since I have started tracking the daily records, it looks like it is definitely most beneficial to wait until the last possible minute to lock in your plays. We had a loss erased due to the Eagles line closing at +1. Most likely would have been very hard to bet it since it closed at the afternoon time slot so it may skew the data slightly. Here are some of the best teasers to consider heading into Week 8 of the NFL season.
This week, I will be waiting until Sunday to lock in my plays since the closing lines have been much better than earlier in the week.
Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 8
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.
It is not recommended to tease game totals
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
-Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3
Historical Wong Teaser Records
|6 pt||2017||+1½ thru +3||62-19||76.54%|
|6 pt||2018||+1½ thru +3||55-17||76.39%|
|6 pt||2019||+1½ thru +3||51-17||75%|
|6 pt||2020||+1½ thru +3||55-12||82.09%|
|6 pt||2017||-7½ thru -9||24-7||77.42%|
|6 pt||2018||-7½ thru -9||17-3||85%|
|6 pt||2019||-7½ thru -9||11-4||73.33%|
|6 pt||2020||-7½ thru -9||23-3||88.46%|
|10 pt||2017||+1½ thru +2½||34-7||82.93%|
|10 pt||2018||+1½ thru +2½||32-3||91.43%|
|10 pt||2019||+1½ thru +2½||33-5||86.84%|
|10 pt||2020||+1½ thru +2½||31-5||86.11%|
|10 pt||2017||-10 thru -10½||8-1||88.89&|
|10 pt||2018||-10 thru -10½||10-1||90.91%|
|10 pt||2019||-10 thru -10½||10-3||76.92%|
|10 pt||2020||-10 thru -10½||8-0||100%|
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
Week 7 Results
|Closing Spread||6 Point||10 Point|
|6 pt||+1 ½ thru +3||31-8||79.49%|
|6 pt||-7 ½ thru -9||10-1||91%|
|10 pt||+1 ½ thru +2 ½||16-0||100%|
As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
|Wednesday Spread||Total||6pt Teaser Record since 2017||10pt Record|
My plays This Week
Since I am not playing the Thursday night game this week, I am going to wait until Sunday to post my plays for this week so I can take some more time to research and wait till the lines move more.
Right now my thoughts are:
Bengals in a 10 point teaser are an absolute lock. I will be putting them in a 10 point at some point but I’m not sure I trust the Colts and the Chiefs who also meet the 10 point Criteria.
I like the Football Team catching 3 in Denver. Denver has not been very good at home and I think the WFTs are pretty scrappy. I will be looking at how they typically perform at altitude and stuff like that this weekend.
Make sure to follow me @KerrCameron on Twitter and I will post them there as the lines move and the NFL Week 8 teasers change.