If you were anything like me in my young gambling career, you thought the six point teaser was basically cheating at first glance. After all, this is supposed to be the most efficient market in the whole world. Razor sharp lines, Computer models setting them, and I can get six points in any direction I want?
If you were anything like me in my young gambling career, you got toasted.
I had no concept of key numbers at that point, I didn’t even take into account road and home splits, I teased every team of seven-ten point favorites down and every underdog up-hell-some of them even in the same game.
Teasers are just that-a tease. The thing is, when you actually apply them correctly, they can be unbelievably profitable.
I’d like to introduce to you, The Wong Teaser.
The Back Story
Stanford Wong wrote a book called Sharp Sports Betting in 2009. As it reads on Amazon, “Sharp Sports Betting explains the logic and math of sports bets, including such exotic bets as parlays, teasers, and props. There are many tables of NFL data.”
You can purchase the book to learn more Here.
The whole idea behind a Wong Teaser-also known as a basic strategy teaser is getting through two key numbers, and at this point in 2018, there are even a few more guidelines to improve your win probability.
In the book, Wong talks about how the best possible teaser takes a team through the seven and the three-both key numbers. Favorites get teased down, underdogs up. Simple enough, as 17% of games end in three points and 10% of games end by seven points. By teasing across three and seven, the teaser covers the top two outcomes, and with the extra point being moved back, the newest key number, six.
For a 6 point teaser to break even, bettors must win each single leg 72.3% of the time.
The Magic Formula:
Play as close to kickoff as possible:
Play only two-team 6 point teasers in games with a total of 49 or less.
Tease home favorites of 7.5, 8, 8.5 or 9 points down.
Tease home underdogs of 1, 1.5, 2 or 2.5 points up.
Tease road underdogs of 1, 1.5. 2, or 2.5 points up.
The biggest issue new teaser players have is teasing a game at three up. You don’t get any of the value when you start with a three going to nine. In this scenario, the 2.5 line is actually more valuable than the three, and the data shows it.
In the 2018 NFL season, this has yet again been greatly profitable. Through week seven it was 13-4, as NFL Week seven saw a perfect 2-0 with Indianapolis and Washington coming in easily.