We are closing in on one month from the NFL season and dynasty fantasy drafts are underway and the quest to steal some value in the late rounds begins! Looking for dynasty value picks is always a challenge. All of these picks are guys you can feel comfortable going and getting above their present ADP. You should also jump all over them if they fall to their present ADP in your dynasty draft.
In dynasty, it is a challenge to balance your long term and short term return on investment. You can sacrifice your short-term competitiveness for long-term success, but it is hard to guarantee long-term success. A strong dynasty team has some short-term studs and long-term prospects balanced together to win a title. Finding dynasty value picks in your startup draft is critical, but there is value to be found all over dynasty startup drafts.
6 Fantasy Football Dark Horses for Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Matt Stafford
Last season Stafford was on pace to finish as a top 5 quarterback on the season until he got injured and did not play past Week 9. Although he is now 32, he is still a highly-talented quarterback who plays with a bevy of talented wide receivers. With talented options at wideout like Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones as targets, along with the young and talented Quintez Cephus waiting in the wings, Stafford will be a solid option for the next five years. Five years of high-end and stable production is invaluable at any position in Dynasty.
Presently Stafford is QB13 behind players like Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, and Carson Wentz. Although the three of them are younger than Stafford, Stafford has a much higher floor than any of that trio. He may not be a ten-year option like Mayfield and Burrow, and he may not have the rushing floor of Wentz, but he is a better short-term answer than any of those three. Rather than having to reach for him before pick 100, Stafford will be available in Round 10 and be the kind of QB who can spark your team to a title for good value.
Mark Ingram
Ingram may now be on the wrong side of 30, but he shows little indication of slowing down. Three of the past four years Ingram has finished as a top-ten running back. He has done this with two different teams and while holding off talented young backs. Not many backs have been hyper-productive in their post-thirty years, but Ingram seems to have the ability and talents to be the exception to the rule.
Even if Baltimore moves on from Ingram after this year, he has enough left in the tank to provide value to your dynasty squad. He could very easily have some Frank Gore-esque seasons in his later career where he is a reliable option who will get consistent touches wherever he goes. Factor in his present ADP of RB33 in dynasty leagues and you have a great dynasty value pick. For reference, Sony Michel, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Darrius Guice, three young backs who have even more uncertainty in their long-term value are going ahead of Ingram. In dynasty plan on turning over your running back corps every 3-5 years no matter what so Ingram easily fits within that time-frame for a great value.
Tarik Cohen
Cohen is an absolute monster in PPR. Over the past three years, his targets have gone from 71 to 91 to 104. With Big Nick Foles coming to Chicago in 2020, Cohen has an opportunity to keep his targets at a wide receiver-esque clip. In his three years as the majority starter, Foles targeted LeSean McCoy 64 times, Darren Sproles 62, and Benny Cunningham/Todd Gurley 62. Cohen is a more talented receiver and has familiarity with the Chicago system.
Even if your league is not a PPR league, Cohen has value. Cohen is on the field and touches the ball so often he has to be owned. At only 25, and with his receiving skills, he will be a valuable asset for years to come. He will not be a dominant RB1 type player, but he will provide you with a solid Flex play each week for years to come. Finding reliable value late, pick 129 ADP, is huge in dynasty. If he leaves Chicago at the end of this year he could find his way into more touches on the ground in another offense increasing his value among dynasty value picks.
Tee Higgins
Going at WR44 the young Clemson product is criminally undervalued as a long-term asset. Cincinnati wants to be similar to the Rams’ offense with three receivers used interchangeably. Higgins fits that mold along with Tyler Boyd and AJ Green. Add in his explosiveness and he can provide game-breaking ability for Joe Burrow. At 6’ 4” Higgins has pro size and capabilities, combine that with his 18.1 yards-per-catch average in college and you have a deadly weapon for the long-term.
Receivers tend to hold value longer than any other position in dynasty due to their longer peak and longevity in general. At only 21 Higgins has a long and fruitful career ahead of him. Couple his youthfulness with a potentially uber-talented young quarterback in Joe Burrow and you have a player who should be able to at least anchor your WR2 slot, if not ascend to the WR1 level in three years.
Kenny Golladay
For some reason, last year’s WR03 has fallen to the WR10 in dynasty ADP behind several older and less talented receivers despite continuing to dominate. Golladay’s slide is even more baffling when you consider his epic 2019 season happened with only half a year of Matthew Stafford. With Stafford back in the saddle, Golladay should rise to even higher heights. Last year, Golladay was targeted 13 times inside the ten-yard line, a number that will most likely maintain. He will get red zone opportunities and dominate the Lions’ target share as well.
There are only two receivers who are likely to have better 2020 seasons than Golladay, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins. Go get Golladay early and be rewarded with a dynamic young playmaker to anchor your dynasty squad around. Sometimes looking at dynasty value picks means snapping up players who are slipping just too much. Golladay is a true WR1 and is a building block for dynasty squads. If he falls to his standard ADP you are stealing him.
Brandon Aiyuk
Behind George Kittle, the 49ers receiving corps is a murky mess. Emmanuel Sanders departed for New Orleans and Deebo Samuel has a Jones fracture injury. Jones fractures are notoriously tricky and have sidelined players like Sammy Watkins and Julian Edelman. Even after returning, they did not appear to be themselves for the short term. That leaves the door open for the first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk had a breakout senior year at Arizona State where he caught 65 passes for 1192 yards and 8 touchdowns. That talent has him sitting atop the 49ers wide receiver depth chart. This makes him a valuable short-term asset. When you combine that short-term value with his potential long-term value as a first-rounder, you get a steal at WR50. Being picked around pick 103 in dynasty drafts is a criminal underrating of Aiyuk. With his skills and opportunities, he will at least be a solid flex play as the top wide receiver in San Francisco. Do not be surprised if Aiyuk climbs into the WR2 range before the end of the season if Samuel is limited.
6 Fantasy Football Red Flags for Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Hayden Hurst
Last year Austin Hooper was targeted 97 times in a pass-happy Atlanta offense. After Hooper’s departure for Cleveland, the Falcons went out and traded for Hayden Hurst. During the 2019 season, the former first-round pick was eclipsed by Mark Andrews in the Baltimore offense. Hurst flashed his potential with a 77% catch rate and a pair of touchdowns on 39 targets. If his hands are as sure as they seem, look for Hurst to absorb a large share of Hooper’s targets.
Despite the fact that the Falcons seem to have too many receiving options with Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Hurst, there is actually a good deal of targets to go around. Mohamed Sanu departed with 42 targets and there are plenty of miscellaneous targets to keep the top four options happy. Hurst will have a huge opportunity to become a top-six tight end if he can keep Hooper’s target share. If he can keep his catch rate above 70% Matt Ryan will trust him. All of that, plus his youth makes him a steal at TE16 and with an ADP of 153, a true value among dynasty value picks. Hurst could be your reliable tight end for years to come.
