BetQL’s premium sports betting data now features live Bundesliga odds, best bets from our model, public data and more on our web and app platforms. Here’s a sneak peek behind the paywall with three of the best bets to target in Matchday 29 action. If you are new to soccer betting, check out our How To Bet On Soccer tutorial before locking in this weekend’s wagers.
Note: the data presented in this article is as of Friday morning and is subject to change.
Moneyline: Bayern Munich vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf Draw (+1163)
At 20-4-4, there’s no denying that Bayern is the premier Bundesliga squad. To highlight their dominance, they’ve scored 81 goals and have allowed just 28 this season, both of which are the top marks in the 18-team league. Fortuna has struggled; there’s no denying that. At 6-9-13, they’re currently in 16th place and are in the relegation conversation. However, they haven’t hemorrhaged goals to their opponents coming out of the hiatus, as evidenced by the fact that they fought Paderborn to a 0-0 draw on May 16th, FC Koln to a 2-2 draw on May 24th before taking down Schalke 2-1 in their last match on Wednesday. The odds are clearly in Bayern’s favor in this matchup, but there’s a great deal of value and potential upside in betting on the draw at +1163. For reference, our model lists the draw at +663 (a 500-point difference than the consensus odds). This is clearly the best punt play in Matchday 29 action.
Moneyline: VFL Wolfsburg (-104) vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Wolfsburg is coming off of an impressive 4-1 rout over Leverkusen on Tuesday and is now 2-0-1 coming out of the break (they beat Augsburg 2-1 on May 16th before falling 2-0 to Dortmund on the 23rd). The 6th place team’s 6-2 goal differential during those games is a stark contrast to Einctracht’s 6-11 goal differential in that same span. Frankfurt has gone 0-1-2 out of the break, falling to Monchengladbach and Bayern before fighting SC Freiburg to a 3-3 draw last time out. These two sides are headed in different directions at the moment and due in part to their current form, our model lists Wolfsburg as a -228 favorite, presenting value on the -104 consensus moneyline based on the 124-point differential. Wolfsburg has conceded just 34 goals this season, which is tied for the third-best mark in the Bundesliga. Just five teams have allowed more than Frankfurt (52) this year. Based on the current lines, Wolfsburg is a viable target.
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Total: Paderborn vs. Borussia Dortmund: UNDER 3.5
Coming out of the break, Paderborn has been involved in two 0-0 draws (against Dusseldorf on May 16th and then Augsburg on Wednesday) and a 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim on May 23rd. At 4-7-17 and in last place in the Bundesliga, there’s no denying that they’re a major favorite to get relegated, but their defense has been in top form. Dortmund is coming off of a close-fought 1-0 loss to Bayern last time out and before then, took down Schalke 4-0 on May 16th and Wolfsburg 2-0 on the 23rd. In their three Bundesliga matches leading up to the break, they scored just five goals against Werder, Freiburg and Monchengladbach. Not only have their goal-scoring numbers not exactly been eye-popping, but star striker Erling Haaland suffered a knee injury last time out and will miss this contest. That’s a major blow to Dortmund’s attack. Our model is projecting a 2-1 Dortmund victory, but for this game to stay under the 3.5-goal total. For more Bundesliga picks check out BetQL to find a pick for each game and each bet type
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