We got absolutely brutalized yesterday in the worst single day betting the LPL I’ve had this season going 0-5 in our selections. While one of them was a fairly big underdog in BiliBili the others were some pretty rough beats with both LNG and TOP winning back-to-back games rather decisively after each dropping their first game in the series. It happens. Onto the next one!
Of note, underdogs have covered the map spread (+1.5) in 25 out of 42 matches and won outright 16 times.
LOL Pro League (China) – Thursday, March 19
Team WE vs Dominus eSports (Start Time: 2am Eastern on Twitch)
Team WE have opted to start their third string mid lane player Teacherma for this series. The last we saw of him was in a pre-season exhibition tournament called the Demacia Cup where he went 3-3 over the course of six games, five of which were in one best of five series against EDG. Teacherma is a bit of a one-trick pony specializing in characters that move around the map and impact everywhere but the middle lane utilizing picks like Nocturne and Pantheon to help his team get ahead while sacrificing his own resources. It’s a very feast or famine style of play and he’s not exactly feasting often…
Dominus are only 1-3 this season but have faced two of the top teams, Invictus and FunPlus Phoenix, as well as the playoff quality Vici Gaming. They are about to have a great opportunity against a third string, predictable substitute and have had an extra few days to prepare compared to Team WE who just played Tuesday. Their best player Natural is also a pretty big mismatch in the top lane against Team WE’s Morgan.
PICK – Dominus +1.5 maps @ -200 (2/3 stake), Dominus Moneyline +160 (1/3 stake)
LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (Start Time: 5am Eastern on Twitch)
FunPlus Phoenix vs Suning Gaming (Start Time: 7am Eastern on Twitch)
Both of these matches involve ridiculous favorites. Invictus are -1100 and FunPlus are -885 on the moneyline. While Invictus tend to mess around sometimes and disrespect their opponents, these two teams both outclass their opposition to an extreme degree. The map spreads are also longer than -250 odds so it’s best to avoid these two unless you wanted to do a moneyline parlay which not all books offer. I can’t see either of these teams losing outright but they might drop a game, Invictus inparticular. If the parlay is an option, it’s a lock.
Pick – Parlay (2): Invictus ML + FunPlus ML @ ~ -450 (if available)
DFS Picks
In DFS a lot of people got their first experience with substitutions as LNG brought back Asura for game three against Victory Five. In the best of three regions this is a thing that happens somewhat frequently so you may want to have a smaller percentage of your lineups on teams that use them frequently but you can sometimes differentiate your lineup by taking a chance on them too.
Notable Subs that are starting tomorrow:
Leyan (JGL for Invictus), Teacherma (MID for Team WE)
Invictus is the bloodiest team in any of the four major regions. They like to style on their opponents. They average a combined kills+deaths of 33.6 per game. You’ll almost definitely want a piece of them even at their hefty price tags.
Invictus’ top laner, TheShy, is arguably the best player on the planet and is probably the best to ever play his position in the history of the game. Top lane is kind of like tight end in fantasy football, there are only a few elite scoring options at the position. TheShy is the League of Legends equivalent to Rob Gronkowski or Zach Ertz.
Cash Games
In cash games you’ll want to build around Invictus and FunPlus. With the pricing as top heavy as it is, you’ll likely need to start a non-carry (MID or ADC) in your captain spot like this.
Tournaments/GPPs
Puff, Doinb, and Lwx are likely going to be the highest owned players so for bigger tournaments I want to avoid them, especially Puff and Doinb, when I can so I can have a more unique lineup to take the whole thing down instead of splitting. I also like Dominus to pull the upset win tomorrow so I’ll be building different 4-2-1 lineups instead of the typical 4-3 split.
