Week 17 Flowchart Results
The GPP Flowchart was a huge winner on the last full NFL Sunday slate of the year. Thanks in part to the last minute Twitter swap of Joe Mixon & the Bengals for Todd Gurley & the Rams; we ended up with Higbee (TE #1), Brown (WR #3), Adams (WR #8), Mixon (RB #4), Washington (RB #9), and Rodgers (QB #6) for a total of six players in the Top 10 at their position. The Optimal GPP Lineup finished with 171.08 pts which was good enough for a Top 5% finish in the large contests. With so many Top 10 players, there were a lot of lineup combinations that were in the money.
The Cash Flowchart was a big success as well. We absolutely loaded up on Running Back and ended up having four of the Top 10 scorers on the day. This set a nice foundation for the Cash lineups, which also got a bump from the Saints finishing as the #1 Defense. Sims & Beckham both exceeded value for their salary and the Optimal Cash Lineup came in at 156.26pts. If you decided to stray away from the exact structure and were able to include a few more RB combinations, you could have easily been in the 170s. A majority, if not all, of the Cash Lineup combinations were above the cash line and got us into the green!
Wild Card Weekend Breakdown
Before we dig into each of the Wild Card weekend matchups, I want to clarify a couple of things that slightly change with the flowchart now that we are into the smaller slates. First, the Quarterback position becomes extremely important. We were able to overcome a poor performance from Watson in the Week 16 Saturday slate, but that is outside of the norm. Also, the 3rd column for Low Ownership is the key to success or failure in the Large GPPs. We don’t necessarily need players that are exactly under 5%, but we absolutely must hit on a few of the long shot guys in order to keep pace with the field.
The early Saturday game is Bills @ Texans, and I don’t love a lot of players in this matchup. The Buffalo defense is as stout as any in the league and the are holding opposing QBs and WRs to roughly 4pts below their season averages. However, I don’t exactly trust Josh Allen in his playoff debut; and I expect the scoring to be low in this game and the Texans to try and lean heavy on the run game if they aren’t having success through the air. Load up on Carlos Hyde and the Texans Defense.
The Saturday Night Primetime matchup between the Patriots and the Titans is definitely not one that we would have seen coming back in Week 8 but it is must-see TV at this point in the season. Tannehill, Henry, and AJ Brown have closed out the season on an absolute tear and will be a great matchup for the Patriots high powered Defense. I think Belichick chooses to try and contain Derrick Henry, and let Tannehill prove that he can beat them through the air. I expect the Titans to have success and cause the Patriots to have to increase their scoring opportunities. I really like Brady & Edelman here in a low ownership spot and then I’ll come back with AJ Brown to complete the game stack.
On Sunday, we get non-Primetime Kirk Cousins facing off with Drew Brees when the Vikings play the Saints. This is another game where I think we can expect to see a lot of points early and often. I think Adam Thielen will fly under the radar and be in a great position to potentially break open the slate with a big performance. Over the last 5 weeks, both Defenses are allowing WRs to exceed their season average scores by over 3 points per game. Try and fit in as many skill position players from this game as possible.
The last game of Wild Card weekend may very well be the least impressive of them all. The Eagles & Seahawks are both riddled with injuries. It is going to be hard for me to include any Eagles players due to the questions surrounding Sanders & Ertz. I really like the Seattle Defense here against Carson Wentz in his playoff debut. I think Travis Homer will continue to see more touches (even if Marshawn vultures a goal line TD), and I think Pete Carroll will need to lean on his run game late to control the clock.
Good luck to everyone in the first weekend of the 2019-20 NFL Playoffs! Make sure to check in with me on Twitter on Saturday/Sunday morning for any last-minute injury or lineup adjustments.