A quarter of the NFL season has passed since my last NFL Power Rankings ATS so it felt like a perfect time to revisit the list. The Miami Dolphins really responded by being placed in time out with an impressive 4 ATS wins in a row! Can we expect a similar response from the Browns or Jets? Highly unlikely, should out to one of my ‘Green Light’ teams New Orleans going 3-0 ATS since my last column.
The team’s ATS record is next to their name, the number after that is their average margin ATS
Green Lights
1. Arizona 6-3-0 (-0.6) – 3-1 ATS since the last ‘Green Report’, this team is bad enough to get a lot of points, but also good enough to slide in that back door late.
2. Carolina 5-3-0 (+0.5) – With Cam Newton out of the picture this team can continue to dominate ATS. Game Blouses!
3. San Francisco 5-3-0 (+12.8) – Like the band on the Titanic I’m still hanging on to my Jimmy G sucks take, but this defense makes them an ATS beast.
4. Buffalo 5-3-0 (+0.6) – The Bills are 6-2 SU and still underdogs against the Browns? No respect = tons of value.
5. Denver 5-4-0 (-0.1) – Defense coming around and Joe Flacco gone? Could be the second half dark horse ATS team.
6. New England 6-3-0 (+7.4) – The Baby Whales got harpooned which should lead to some more manageable spreads.
I See You
7. LA Chargers 3-4-2 (-1.1) – They got their LT back and they’re hitting FGs? Put the league on notice! Just in time for a near playoff run that ends in heartbreak.
8. Jacksonville 5-4-0 (-1.1) – Nick Foles is coming back after their bye week and this competitive Jags team will be undervalued.
9. Tampa Bay 2-6-0 (-0.2) – They only have 2 ATS wins, but the Bucs passing game is built for busting down the back door.
10. Oakland 5-3-0 (+0.6) – Their defense is still pretty rough, but at home as a small favorite and as a big dog are good spots to bet on.
11. Houston 5-4-0 (+4.5) – Still struggle with legit pass rushes but do you really want to bet against Deshaun Watson?
12. Pittsburgh 5-3-0 (+0.7) – Backing Mason Rudolph is still pretty scary, but this team is definitely playing for Tomlin.
13. Miami 4-4-0 (-6.3) – The Gatorade dump was legit laugh out loud, but nobody believes in this team’s ability to cover.
14. Tennessee 3-5-1 (+0.4) – Now that Ryan Tannehill isn’t playing for that smelling salt junkie Adam Gase he looks like a legit option at QB.
Have To Bet On Something
15. Philadelphia 4-5-0 (-1.4) – Lack of production at WRs is keeping them in the middle ground as an ATS team.
16. Indianapolis 4-3-1 (+1.4) – I’m not betting on this team until Adam Vinatieri retires. That’s what I keep trying to tell myself.
17. Detroit 4-4-0 (-0.1) – The Lions are the most meh team this season. Back at home fade on the road, don’t think too much about them.
18. Minnesota 5-4-0 (+3.6) – A few big wins had the Vikings starting to get outpriced of the market.
19. Seattle 4-5-0 (-1.4) – Danger Russ is balling out but that defense is suspect and their home field advantage isn’t what it was.
20. New Orleans 6-2-0 (+4.1) – Great team, but with Brees back the price will be too high.
21. LA Rams 6-2-0 (+0.9) – The Ramsey hype has got this team over-priced for now.
22. Cincinnati 3-5-0 (-5.6) – The spread is alive and well and the winless Bengals expect to see some HUUUUGE numbers.
23. Baltimore 3-5-0 (+5.5) – All aboard the Lamar Jackson MVP bandwagon means the value on the Ravens is probably gone.
Beer Goggles
24. Green Bay 6-3-0 (+1.4) – Their defense has been exposed and storm clouds are brewing in the Lafleur & Rodgers partnership.
25. Dallas 5-3-0 (+3.4) – Two bold predictions for the second half of the season, Garrett figures out how to derail this season and Epstein didn’t kill himself.
26. Kansas City 5-4-0 (+2.1) – Mahomes return will over inflate the price for this team, especially considering how bad their defense has been.
27. NY Giants 3-6-0 (-4.2) – Danny Dimes is leading the league with 16 turnovers this season. Awesome!
28. Washington 3-6-0 (-4.4) – Haskins looks completely lost out there and the defense is now below mediocre.
29. Chicago 2-6-0 (-2.7) – A sportsbook is refunding MVP bets on Mitch Trubisky. Imagine things being so bad a sportsbook takes pity on you.
30. Atlanta 2-6-0 (-8.9) – The secret is out on how bad this ATL team is so they could be catching some big numbers.
Time Out
31. NY Jets 2-6-0 (-7.1) – Holy shit they lost to the Dolphins. I mean like holy shit.
32. Cleveland 2-6-0 (-5.5) – Somehow this team is favored again this week even with Sad Baker at the helm.
The cover percentage and ATS record come from TeamRankings.com.
