Happy Monday y’all, and here’s to me being in 8th place, that’s right 8th place in the Freeroll Football Contest. This week on Monday Night Football, we get the soon to be relegated Miami Dolphins vs. the surprisingly alive Pittsburgh Steelers. Will the Dolphins show any effort as the front office continues the fire sale? Can the Steelers take advantage of the very mediocre AFC and claw their way back to playoff contention? And of course, will Booger get fired this week?
For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the market to get you paid on some Monday Night Football prop bets. For more in-depth analysis, listen to the Week 8 Picks Podcast below.
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Season record: 20-21 (-.55u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday, October 28th @ 5:20 PM Pacific
Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Weather: 55f and clear
TV: ESPN
Spread: Steelers -14
MoneyLine: +575 | -850
Total: 43.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag *Promo Code SGP*
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
1. Davante Parker Over 3.5 Receptions (+115) & 2. Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
Parker has clearly been involved when Fitzpatrick has started averaging eight targets per game. With these total sitting at 3.5 & 46.5 with positive juice on the over, it seems too easy. I’ll fall for the looks good coming off the bus trap and snag the over.
3. James Conner Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Sure he hasn’t sniffed this total all year, but he is as healthy as he has been all season and gets his FB back after missing five games. I expect the Steelers to pound the rock repeatedly as they take on the #32 defense according to DVOA.
4. Mason Rudolph Under 235.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Sure the Steelers are taking on the #32 Pass defense according to DVOA, but I struggle to see a gameplan that puts Rudolph back in the fire as the last we saw him, he was getting knocked out cold in a scary way thanks to Earl Thomas and the Ravens. For the same reason I like Conner over I like the under here, Rudolph will be asked to manage the game and not much more.
5. Juju Smith-Schuster Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Dolphins get Xavien Howard back, and with that, Juju goes onto one of the toughest islands in the NFL. This play is more of a hunch that the combination of the Steelers rolling a more conservative game plan with the very tough matchup will create a nice under opportunity.
6. 1st TD’s (.25 u each)
I’m going to roll with red-zone target leaders for the Dolphins, Devante Parker & Preston Williams, who both have three red-zone targets in games started by Ryan Fitzpatrick. As for the Steelers, give me the very chalky James Conner, who, as I mentioned above, should be involved early and often, and Diontae Johnson, who has surprisingly lead the team in red-zone targets with Rudolph under center.
- James Conner +450
- Diontae Johnson +1000
- Devante Parker +1600
- Preston Williams +2000
Good luck and Let It Ride!
