Happy Monday, ya’ll and here’s to the Raiders being a playoff team right now! On to Monday Night Football this week, which brings us another gem as the undefeated…that’s right, undefeated fighting Jimmy G’s take on the hype machine out of Cleveland. Was the bye week for the 49ers at the wrong time? Can the Browns right the ship and continue their winning ways? Will Booger continue to blow everyone’s mind and keep his job on MNF?
For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the market to get you paid on some Monday Night Football prop bets. For more in-depth analysis, listen to the Week 5 Picks Podcast below.
Season record: 14-11 (+2.75u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
1. Nick Chubb Under 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Simply put, the 49ers are actually really good defending the run. Year to date, they have allowed 225 yards at 3.4 yards per rush. Remove Chubb’s stellar performance vs. the #28 rush defense in Baltimore, and he has accumulated 233 yards at 4 yards per rush. I expect the 49ers to continue their improved rush defense (#6 DVOA & #7 Line Yards), creating a negative game script for the Browns rushing attack.
2. Ricky Seals-Jones Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
The 49ers are the #1 team against the TE according to DVOA, and it’s not even close. Ricky Seals-Jones wasn’t even good enough to make the lowly Cardinals, and frankly, the TE position doesn’t seem to be a part fo the Browns weekly game plan. I would go as far as to say I am surprised they even dangled a line for this one, and for that reason, I will take the under as I expect an 0 catch performance.
3. Jarvis Landry Over 5 Receptions (-115)
This is the best matchup on the board as Landry comes in with 26 targets over the last three games. While this could be blown up by Beckham pressure, I think Landry hauls in 6-8 balls over the middle against a 49ers defense whose weak spot has come against #2 and slot WRs.
4. Baker Mayfield under 20.5 Completions (-110)
He only reached this total in week 1 when the Browns were comically getting their ass kicked. I think this is going to be a closer game and against a very tough pass defense. Plus, isn’t it fun to fade the Baker hype.
5. 1st TD’s (.25 u each)
I’m going to roll with both RB’s (Coleman slots back into GL duties) plus George Kittle & Jarvis Landry, who both are tied for their teams lead in Red Zone targets.
- Nick Chubb +700
- George Kittle +800
- Tevin Coleman +1000
- Jarvis Landry +1200
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!