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Premier League Predictions and Game of the Week Preview (August 23, 2019)

Gameweek 3 Predictions

Aston Villa 0-0 Everton
Norwich 1-1 Chelsea
Brighton 1-0 Southampton
Manchester United 2-0 Crystal Palace
Sheffield United 0-1 Leicester
Watford 1-1 West Ham
Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal
Bournemouth 1-4 Manchester City
Tottenham 2-0 Newcastle
Wolves 1-0 Burnley

Summary

For Parlay players, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham, immediately stick out as chalky selections. You can’t make a good argument for any of them slipping up. I also expect all 3 to win and to cover -1.5 goals in the Asian Handicap market. This isn’t usually a wise bet in the EPL, however, all 3 situations look like solid investments, with Newcastle and Palace struggling to score goals, whilst Bournemouth’s offensive style is taylor-made for City to pick them off.

Chelsea could go 3 games without a win, as Norwich look look like a competent Premiership team, however, I’m not still not convinced by Sheffield United- despite their unbeaten start- and look for Leicester to fare better than Crystal Palace. Aston Villa still don’t have a win and I don’t see that changing against an Everton team who are yet to concede a goal.

Game of the Week: Liverpool vs Arsenal

This weekend’s game of the week focuses on the Saturday evening clash between Liverpool and Arsenal- the early top 2- in a game that usually guarantees goals. No Premier League fixture in history has seen more goals than this one, with 155 goals in 54 games.

Unai Emery’s side sit 2nd in the Premier League table having also won their opening 2 fixtures, beating Newcastle and Burnley. However, we saw their defence constantly troubled against Burnley, as Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood caused them a plethora of issues. Things are going to be even tougher when they face a free-scoring Liverpool.

Arsenal conceded 35 goals in 19 Premier League away games last season, which was more than Crystal Palace, Leicester, Watford, Wolves, West Ham, Everton, Newcastle, and even Cardiff conceded. Last season, Liverpool netted 55 goals in their 19 home games, winning 17 and drawing two. Incredibly, Liverpool haven’t lost at home in the Premiership for two seasons, winning 12 and drawing 7 in 2017/18. All of the stats clearly point to a very difficult evening for Arsenal, as does the combined XI.

Prediction

Aubameyang, Ozil and Leno make a Liverpool dominated combined XI, with the latter only there because Allison is out injured. Ozil is a luxury player, and one that Arsenal often choose not to utilise, due to his poor work rate. He would probably fit in far better into a Liverpool team- who are defensively more solid- which would Ozil to flat in a free-role, allowing him to simply focus on being a creative influence.

Defensively, Liverpool simply don’t seem to be at the level they were last Season. Southampton surprisingly created more clear-cut chances than Liverpool last weekend, and better quality opposition probably would’ve put them to sword. With that being said, Liverpool still look prolific at the other end, having netted 8 goals in 3 games. 10 of the last 12 meetings between these two have seen over 2.5 goals scored, and I see another high scoring game here, with Liverpool winning out in end.

Liverpool 3 Arsenal 1

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