Greetings fellow prop market investors and happy Week Four. Its hard to believe that we are already at the quarter pole of the NFL season. If you’re having a season like mine your wondering when global warming will start to heat up your picks. This time of the season also brings me excited as we now have an ample sample size to start applying 2018 analytics to the approach and melt those glaciers(regress) back towards the mean.
This MNF matchup brings together the unstoppable offensive force with a very immovable object(at least at home). The Chiefs are off to, even by Andy Reid standards, an incredibly hot start on offense and look like the favorites to win the AFC. Meanwhile, the Broncos are off to another good September start, albeit while going 0-2-1 ATS. For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Monday Night Football. For more in-depth analysis listen to the Week 4 Picks Podcast below.
Season: 4-6 (-3.3u)
Last Week: 2-3 (-2.1u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday October 1st @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Broncos Stadium at Mile High in Denver, Colorado
Weather: 77f and partly cloudy
TV: ESPN(Joe Tessitore, Jason Witten, Booger McFarland, Lisa Salters)
Spread: Broncos +4.5
MoneyLine: -190/+160
Total: 55
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Total Punts Over 8.5 (-110)
I know this seems crazy with how lights out the Chiefs have been on offense, but these two teams have averaged a combined 8.7 punts per game. Sprinkle in the fact that this is a divisional game and Kansas City’s first test against a good defense at home and its all about the #PuntPassion (credit @AdamChernoff)
2. Phillip Lindsay Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Ladies and gentleman…well mostly gentleman…even that’s a stretch let me try again. Fellow degenerates let me introduce the worst defense in the league when defending the RB in the passing game (#32 DVOA). Need I say more.
3. Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-110) & 4. Over 76.5 Yards (-110)
The Broncos have forever been bad defending the tight end even when they have had elite defenses. This years unit is still rounding into shape and they currently tout the #29 defense against the TE. Now factor in that the Chiefs(after week 1) have gotten Kelce involved early and often with averaging 10 targets for 7.5 and 112. Yes please!
5. Patrick Mahomes to throw an INT (-110)
It’s like your sitting at the roulette table to close out a less than spectacular night in Vegas…3 reds in a row BLACK IS DUE! Seriously though if he is gonna pop his 2018 pick cherry this is the game.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
