Greetings fellow prop market investors and happy Week Two. Apologies for the late start to the 2018 season but as in football sometimes life just gets in the way. As I’m sure you are aware if you follow the podcast I had a disaster of a weekend and while some might look to take the road of witness protection, I will grind on. As the great John Starks once said, “You can’t score if you stop shooting.”
This MNF matchup brings together two teams on different trajectories. On one hand, Chicago, coming off a heartbreaking loss, has all the pieces(Coach, QB, Defense) in place to make a serious surprise run. On the other Seattle looks to be Russell Wilson and the best and brightest for the Amazon rec leagues. Is this the end of what could have been a dynasty in Seattle? Will Mitchell & Nagy be the Saviors in Chicago? I’ll let someone else answer those questions. For now, let’s dive into the matchup and identify inefficiencies in the prop market to get you paid on Monday Night Football.
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday September 17th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Weather: 79f and clear
TV: ESPN(Joe Tessitore, Jason Witten, Booger McFarland, Lisa Salters)
Spread: Bears -4.5
Odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Total Sacks Over 5.5 (-110)
You cant put this total high enough when the Seahawks are playing. You saw what Von Miller and company did in week 1 against this porous offensive line, expect more of that from Vic and Mack this week and yes you can pencil Mitchell in for a couple of OH FUCK sacks.
2. Jordan Howard Over 72.5 Rush Yards (-110) & 3. Over .5 Rushing TDs (+130)
I think my one big takeaway watching Nagy do his best I’m Andy Reid and Im gonna blow this game impression is how successful the running game was and how quickly they seemed to go away from it. I’m banking on the fact that they will self-scout and see this and realize had they stuck with the run and shortened the game last week they certainly would have come away a winner. Look for them to use Howard early and often against the Seahawks 17th ranked run defense(DVOA, I know, I know small sample size)
4. Russell Wilson Over 1.5 TD Passes (-110)
This is just a poor number, I’m not sure how else this Seahawks team is going to score as I have yet to see the ability to run the ball consistently when the other team knows you’re running it(again I know small sample). That this and thank me later.
5. Allen Robinson Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This is another mostly gut play, I just didn’t see Trubisky look down the field at all! Seriously, outside of that one(albeit really nice) through to Robinson week 1 I just didn’t see him looking down the field. Sure this one could get blown up in glorious fashion with another great back shoulder through, but I’m perfectly fine fading that position and you should be too.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!