Sunday Night Baseball Game Info
Time: 7:08 CT
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: 77 degrees, 7mph ENE
TV: ESPN
MoneyLine: Washington Nationals (-135) Chicago Cubs (+115)
Spread: Washington Nationals -1.5 (+130) Chicago Cubs +1.5 (-150)
Total: 7.5 over -125 under +105
Side & Total
The Nats opened at -140 and early public money seems to be favoring the Cubs. Possibly due to Washington going 13-19 against left-handed pitchers so far.
The Cubs have some really interesting trends going this year as they are 61-36 on the year as a favorite and 6-13 as an underdog. They seem to play to expectations at a very favorable percentage. With Mad Max Scherzer on the hill for the Nats tonight -135 seems almost too easy. I’m seeing it as low as -128.
There is even good value taking the 1.5 run line at +130 with the injuries and inconsistencies the Cubs are experiencing offensively.
With a pitching matchup like this, I don’t want to go anywhere near the overs. Under 7.5 at +105 is a safe play despite such a low total that opened at 8. Hell under 7 is probably safe here but fortunately, that’s not the line.
Props
What did I say about overs in a matchup like this? I’m seeing over 25 Runs/Hits/Errors at over -120/under +100. This might be the smartest play on the board. I don’t see enough hits and runs here to make this work.
Errors are up to the scorekeeper’s discretion so let’s just lump them in with hits for handicapping purposes. Still doesn’t add up.
Daily Fantasy Plays Sunday Night
Max Scherzer is expected to go HUGE with his $20,400 price tag. Opposing starter Cole Hamels is at $11,600 so if you’re looking at riding the starters prepare to drop 64% of your $50,000 budget in DraftKings.
I like Ryan Zimmerman here at $8,200 against the lefty. Javy Báez is intriguing at $8,600 but I don’t like his contact rate against a guy like Scherzer.
A sneaky play here is to take a Cubs reliever like Carl Edwards Jr. at $2,400 and hope for a few strikeouts over an inning or two if Hamels falters early. Hitting on the right multi-inning reliever could open some things up with the rest of your lineup but it’s a crapshoot.
Final Notes
Washington is currently 4.5 games back in the wild card standings but there are six teams ahead of them and I don’t see them putting together the type of stretch they’ll need to make it.
The Cubs are locked into a tight pennant race with the surprising Milwaukee Brewers and the Hamels trade could prove to be the move that puts them over the top.
Will Bryce Harper be joining the Cubs this offseason? Jason Heyward can give you 184 million reasons why that might not be a smart move. Harper just hasn’t produced at an elite level compared to Trout, Altuve and Mookie Betts. Since 2014 Trout almost has doubled Harpers Wins Above Replacement 41.7 to 21.2. Harper also falls behind Altuve (27.9), Josh Donaldson (27.5) and Betts (27.0).
I’m not here to bash Harper as my friend Matt Sullivan (and noted Nats fan) would suggest. I just want to point out he’s going to be grotesquely overpaid this offseason and I’ll be surprised if he gets a bigger deal than Manny Machado.
My guess is he “only” ends up in the $200 million range for 5-6 years and not the $400 million/ 10-year monster he and agent Scott Boras were expecting heading into this year. Of course, he’s young and could easily have two more big contracts in him but it’s fair to say he’s hurt himself this year.
