Greetings fellow prop market investors and happy belated Thanksgiving and cheers to Sean for filling nicely on turkey day going 3-2. All the food has been eaten, all the booze has been consumed so lets strike up your appetite for props on Monday Night Football.
This MNF matchup is a real doozie pitting the very much in the playoff hunt Baltimore Ravens against the Holy shit what could have been Houston Texans. Will Houston be able to move the ball against the very talented Ravens defense? Which Flacco will show up tonight? And lastly how can we leverage the prop market to stack some early holiday cash.
For more in depth NFL analysis check out the Week Twelve NFL Picks Podcast where we breakdown and pick all 14 games on the slate.
Season: 47-33-1 (+12.35u)
MNF:30-16 (+15.15u)
TNF:17-17-1 (-2.8u)
Monday Night Football Game Info
Time: Monday November 27th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Weather: 46f and partly cloudy
TV: ESPN(Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden)
Spread: Ravens -7.5
MoneyLine: +300/-360
Total: 39
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. DeAndre Hopkins Over 5.5 Receptions (-110) & 2. Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Yes I know this is a very tough matchup as the Ravens are second in the NFL defending #1 WRs. The problem with that last statement is that this is DeAndre Hopkins, he is matchup proof. Since Watson went down with a torn ACL and Tom Savage has stepped in Hopkins has averaged 13 targets which when you apply his 53.9 catch percentage it projects to 7 catches.
As far as the yardage, if y’all have been reading my prop column this year you know I love a good double dip and with a extremely cheap price here I love Hopkins to go over his total just due to volume. Over that same 3 game stretch Hopkins has averaged ~16 yards per catch or if you prefer ~7 yards per target. Again this paints a very obvious over picture. Yes its a tough matchup, but like I said before DHop is matchup proof and this price is too good to pass up.
3. Texans 1st Quarter Team Total Over .5 (+100)
Will the Texans score in the 1st 15 minutes for +100, yes please!!! All joking aside this prop should be priced at -120 at least. Sure they are facing a great defense, but they are also facing a dreadful offense. Not sure how it gets there but give me the over.
4. Joe Flacco Under 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Another one that we will keep simple. Flacco as only gone over this total two times. In both those matchups(TEN, PIT) they were losing and game flow dictated they throw more. In walk Clowney and the Texan defense who I expect to be a tough matchup for the Ravens in passing downs. This leads me to believe that we will see a lot of the running backs in this one. I also expect the ravens to be playing with a lead for much of this game, again game flow is the reasoning here. Take the under and enjoy everything Flacco has to offer.
5. Over 10.5 Punts (-110)
Gotta give another shout out to Adam Chernoff(@adamchernoff ) for sharing his punt passion with me. Quite simply we have two of the nine worst(or best…depends on how you look at it) teams at punts per drive. Sprinkle in some below average offenses lead by QBs who have mastered the throw away on third down and I say OVER!!!
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!
