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Monday Night Football Spread
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
GREEN BAY -6.5
TOTAL – 49
KC +230|GB -290
Monday Night Football Trends
KC last 6 games ATS – 3-3 – last 6 games TOTAL – 3-3
GB last 6 games ATS – 4-2 – last 6 games TOTAL – 3-3
If there was a prop on repeated mentions that Rodgers slipped in the draft, the same draft Alex Smith went first overall to the San Francisco 49ers, I’d be all over it. That may be the focus on the coverage, but to all us degenerates, we care about the number.
That glorious number. The spread. You know that feeling when you look at a spread, and you just know you have a read on a game? Whether the hook gives it away, or the public is a bit too overexcited about a team, sometimes you just look at a line and feel like you can kick its ass. Unfortunately, that isn’t how I feel about this Chiefs – Packers line.
The Right Side
6.5. Six and a half points. The right side is generally the Chiefs. They are coming off an extra three days rest, the Pack just won a tough game against Seattle, and the Green Bay have injury concerns coming into this. So I should bet the Chiefs. One problem. That would require me betting against Aaron Rodgers at home.
First of all, let us break these teams down. The Chiefs are the team they have wanted to be since Andy Reid got there. That defence is legit, with Justin Houston still terrorising quarterbacks they have a strong pass rush, are stout against the run, and with rookie Marcus Peters looking terrific so far look better in the backfield.
Kansas City Offense
That offense looks to be better as well. Travis Kelce has continued to be dominant at tight end, and although the arrival of Jeremy Maclin hasn’t produced huge numbers so far, he should certainly help the number of big passing plays (completions for over 25 yards) increase.
Last season they only had 20, which was tied for last in the NFL.
The best player on that team is, as always, Jamaal Charles. Two costly fumbles took sight away from his terrific performance against a strong Denver defense. He comes up against a Packers defense that was able to really limit what Marshawn Lynch was able to do last week.
Packers Succeeding Without Big Names
The Packers, even down their best receiver in Jordy Nelson, and with Eddie Lacy possible not playing, have a very strong offense. Issue with them is health. Randall Cobb still isn’t at 100 percent, Devante Adams has an ankle complaint, and Bulaga looks to miss several weeks.
James Starks played well against Seattle last week, and has done the job before, so he should be able to fill in just fine if Lacy can’t go. James Jones has come in and become a real factor straight away, being a great red zone target for Rodgers.
Rogers Consistently Amazing
What Rodgers did against Seattle was amazing. Seattle were consistently able to get a lot of pressure while only sending four guys. This didn’t allow Rodgers easy completions, minimising his time with the ball whilst mantaining good coverage.
But his ability to evade the rush allowed him extra time, and his accuracy meant he was able to put the ball into tight windows, something you need to be able to do to move the ball through the air on Seattle. If the Chiefs want to win this game, they need to be able to bring Rodgers down, flushing him out of the pocket isn’t enough.
Playing The Situation
Situation may be key here. Both teams are coming off big games, the Chiefs in a heartbreaking loss to a division rival, whereas the Packers got a sliver of payback for their loss in the NFC title game last year.
Difference is Kansas City have the added advantage of having an extra three days rest and preparation, which is a huge plus considering both teams come into this having played two very physical defenses.
Fade The Packers?
Usually, I’d take the Packers at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over at Lambeau, last throwing an pick there December 2nd, 2012. And, well, he’s Aaron Rodgers. In saying that, I’ll be taking the Chiefs here. The loss to Denver was incredibly unlucky, and they lost the game by only a touchdown, even though they turned the ball over five times.
I expect Kansas City to be faster out of the gate, the hangover from playing Seattle meaning Green Bay come out of the blocks slow. I still think Green Bay win this, but I expect it to be very close. I think we see a big game from Jamaal Charles and Jeremy Maclin, whilst the Chiefs defense does its thing. Look for Alex Smith to test the Packers deep a lot more than we’ve seen from him in the past.
Monday Night Football Score Prediction
KC 24, GB 28
Also, if you shop around, you will find KC at +7.
DOG BUF ML
TEASE: ARI-.5, HOU-.5, SD+8.5