Tonight’s Line
ST LOUIS -4.5
TOTAL 40.5
Week 13 of the NFL schedule takes us to Los Angele St Louis as the next chapter of “Will the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs” takes them to a Rams team that has been surprisingly dominant.
The St Louis Police Department were upset over the pregame actions of a bunch of Rams players, yet seemed to have no problem with the rape the Rams were dishing out on a sorry Oakland team. They then backed it up with a shutout of the Washington Thinskins. The Rams are looking to be the first team with three consecutive shutouts in 38 years.
Cardinals Trending Downward
The Cardinals on the other hand, are trending a different way. The last four games, all under Drew Stanton, the Cardinals have averaged 13 points a game. They have played three solid defenses in that time, but overall the offense has looked impotent.
Defensively this team is still exceptional, averaging 17 points against them in that time. In comparison, the Rams have averaged over 30 points a game in that timeframe. After starting the season 9-1, the Cards have lost two of their last three, and now sit only one game ahead of Seattle in the division.
Now let’s look at this game from a betting perspective. These are the ATS stats for these teams this season.
ATS OVERALL OVER
ARI 9-4 ARI 4-8-1
STL 7-6 STL 7-6
ATS HOME ATS AWAY
STL 3-3 ARI 3-3
ATS DIVISION ATS AFTER WIN
ARI 2-1 ATL 7-2
STL 2-2 STL 2-3
In Season Adjustments
It’s important to keep in mind adjustments made before and throughout the season. Arizona were expected to regress after last season, so spreads earlier in the season were softer for the Cards then they have been recently.
The Rams started the season poorly, so recent results have changed expectation as well. The question you have to ask yourself is this – Are the Cards being undervalued with the struggles they’ve had in the past month, and are we valuing the Rams to highly with their recent success?
The Public’s Action
The public money at time of writing appears to be 54% in favour of the Rams. Two consecutive shutouts, with one of them a 52-0 drubbing tends to get the public excited. I feel the line is to high. This Arizona team sits one game ahead of Seattle, and know how important this game is.
The troubling thing is the spot. Coming off a tough win against the Chiefs, next week they host Seattle in what may very will be for the division. They are still in position to make a run for a top two seed. If they are looking ahead to Seattle they will be in serious trouble.
My Pick
So now for my pick. I have to roll with the Cardinals here. The line is simply to high. The spread should be 3/3.5. The public overvaluing St Louis seems a good opportunity to make a positive play on the Cardinals here. I’ll also be playing the Cards in a few teasers.
Personally I won’t be making a play on the total, although if I did i’d lean slightly to the Under. I could see this being a 16-13 type game. The worry for me with the total is I would expect a few turnovers for both sides, and if that translates into points we could see a bunch of points here.
FINAL PREDICTION – ARIZONA 16, ST LOUIS 13
Guys don’t forget to hit SGP up on twitter @gamblingpodcast and give them your #lockdogtease
LOCK – CLEVELAND -1
DOG – ARIZONA
TEASE – ARI+10.5, BAL-7.5, ATL+8.5
Dirty disgusting sleazy parlay – ATL+2, ARI+4.5, NE, BAL, NYJ/TEN UNDER, DEN/SD UNDER, DET. PAYS 26/1.
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