San Diego Chargers vs Denver Broncos


San Diego Chargers (6) at Denver Broncos (1)

by Ryan Kramer and Sean Green

Time: Sunday January 12th @ 1:40 PM Pacific
Location: Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO
Weather: 40° and partly cloudy w/ 15mph wind
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Dan Fouts, Tim Ryan)
TV: CBS (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms)
Spread: Broncos -9.5
MoneyLine: -375/+305
Total: 54.5

State Your Case: San Diego Chargers

Matchup: Coach McCoy vs Broncos D. Look guys you can never over look a head coach taking on his old team, its not only players who get hyped for games. Both games these 2 played this year have been tough games and quite frankly the chargers have looked like the better team for 6/8 Quarters. I look for McCoy to continue to rely on his defense to use confusing looks to get Manning off his game and Rivers and that offense will control the clock with short high percentage passes and a heavy dose of Ryan Mathews.
Situation: I like the spot for the Chargers here, Manning off the bye week in what is projected to be a windy cold day. San Diego is the hot team that just proved to themselves that they can travel with a Defense that is playing its best football of the year and an offense who is controlling the clock with a physical style of play. Maybe Peyton continues to be Peyton but man it really seems like the dog will be barking loudly on sunday.
Stats: The Chargers are shockingly the 3rd in the NFL at Off DVOA including 2nd in Off Pass DVOA. What would the Broncos weakness be, oh thats right pass D. The Broncos have the 21st ranked Def Pass DVOA and with Pro-Bowler Von Miller out its hard to imagine its going to improve. Look for rivers to throw for a very efficient 250-300 yards and give the Chargers a chance outright. *For more on DVOA check out the Football Outsiders
Donkey Trend: Any trend that suggests that you take the over. The Broncos went over in 11/14 games not against the Chargers. The over went 0-2 against the Chargers. Nuff said.
Sharp Trend: The Chargers are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5, we see this every year, team needs to win out and get help, that team gets hot and wins it all…not so fast but I like their chances on sunday.

State Your Case: Denver Broncos

Matchup: Peyton Manning vs San Diego Defense. You can’t stop Peyton Manning you can only hope to contain them and it’s tough to imagine the Chargers defense doing that again versus Peyton Manning. Peyton is the #1 QB in the league a true student of the game and has two weeks to prepare with two games of film to look at.
Situation: Broncos are 7-1 at home with their sole loss coming to the Chargers. Revenge will definitely be a factor as Peyton is determined to improve his poor playoff records. Lastly it’s a division game and it’s too much to expect this Chargers team to beat their rival twice in the same reason in Mile High.
Stats: The Chargers are 29th in the league in defense letting up 258.7 pass yards per game. Peyton Manning at home is unstoppable completing 69.3% of his passes with 27 TDs 5 INTs for an amazing 114.9 QB rating. San Diego’s defense has shown holes on the road letting up more that 24 points this year 4 times on the road.
Donkey Trend: Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their past 5 meetings. One of those loses was when Denver won in San Diego earlier this year and Denver is very capable of blowing teams out at home.
Sharp Trend: Even as a huge favorite Broncos are still 5-2-1 ATS at home and 8-2 when favored between 7-13.5 points.

The Picks:

Ryan’s Pick: Under 54.5.
Ryan’s Score: Broncos 27 – Chargers 23.
Ryan’s Bonus: Will Either Team Score in the First 5 1/2 Minutes of the Game NO +120.
Sean’s Pick: Chargers ML +330.
Sean’s Score: Chargers 28 – Broncos 27.
Sean’s Bonus: Eric Decker Over 75.5 yards.

Listen to the latest edition of the Sports Gambling Podcast for an entire Divisional Round breakdown.

Ryan Kramer and Sean Green are writers and co-hosts for the Sports Gambling Podcast. Follow the show on twitter @GamblingPodcast.

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